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The general purpose of Atlas is to forecast how forest
management policies will affect timber supply and alter forest landscapes.
How much more old growth will there be in 50 years if timber harvesting
is decreased by 10%? How much volume of wood can we cut per year
if we require 20% of the forest to be older than 200 years? How
many large patches of old growth will be around in 150 years if
we limit harvest size to less than 40 ha? These are the types of
questions Atlas was designed help answer.
Atlas, like any model,
has some inputs,
some outputs,
and an algorithm
to create the outputs from the inputs. What is an input? Well, Atlas
uses inputs that can be separated into two categories: landscape
characteristics, and modeling
parameters. The basics of landscape characteristics are: a GIS
map, growth
and yield curves, and, harvesting
units. The GIS map describes the landscape we wish to model,
with spatial data on where each individual stand is located, and
site data on the characteristics of each stand - specifically, the
stand's age, tree species, area, and site
index. These values describe the current forest, or at what
modelers call year 0. Yield curves describe how the stands will
change as they grow. For example, if in ten years (year 10), a stand
will have more volume, the yield curve will show an increase in
volume over that period. Harvesting units map out where each harvesting
treatment will take place. All areas that will eventually be cut
are defined before the any modeling is done, whether they will be
scheduled for harvest in year 1, or in year 350.
Modeling parameters are values that users enter to
control the model; there are two general types of parameters: constraints
and objectives. An example of a constraint is the adjacency rule.
When adjacency is turned on, harvesting cannot occur next to a harvested
block until the harvested block reaches a certain age. The age the
block must reach before adjacent cutting is allowed is also a modeling
parameter. Three other important modeling parameters are: seral
constraints, rotation age, and target harvest. Seral constraints
are rules used to enforce a maximum allowable amount of young forest
and a minimum required amount of old forest. For each constraint,
an age is chosen along with a threshold value, expressed as a percent
of the landscape area. For example, 20% and 250 years would be chosen
if the user wished to model a landscape that always contains 20%
of the landbase in stands older than 250 years. If the constraint
is reached, then no more harvesting occurs until at least 20% of
the landscape is again 250 years old. Rotation age is the minimum
age when a stand can be harvested. The target harvest is the amount
of volume that the model will attempt to harvest each year. If the
harvest of any of the stands would result in a constraint being
violated, then the target harvest cannot be met, and the model will
move on to the next year.
Atlas has several harvest priorities available for
ranking the order in which stands will be cut. These include "oldest-first",
"closest distance to the mill", and a "random sort". (note - it
doesn't try successively younger stands to try to break an old seral
constraint).
A more technical description is as follows. A complete
description is available in the ATLAS Manual {documentation - ATLAS).
Harvest Simulation Algorithm - Without SuperBlocks
FPS-ATLAS uses the following procedure to simulate
a harvest scenario when only polygons
are cut:
- Go to the range with the highest harvest priority that
is eligible for harvest. If no ranges are eligible, go to step
7, otherwise go to step 2.
- Within this range go to the access unit that has the
highest harvest priority and is eligible for harvest. If no access
units are eligible, close this range and go to step 1, otherwise
go to step 3.
- Within this access unit go to the zone that has the highest
harvest priority and is eligible for harvest. If no zones are
eligible for harvest, close this access unit, and return to step
2, otherwise go to step 4.
- Within this zone go to the polygon that has the highest
harvest priority (can be age, minimum distance, or stand group),
and is eligible for harvest (not reserved, meets minimum age requirement,
not excluded due to adjacency, etc.). If no polygons are eligible,
close this zone, and go to step 3, otherwise go to step 5.
- Temporarily harvest the polygon and check all constraints that
have been applied to relevant cliques, the zone, the access unit,
and the range. If successful, go to step 6. If unsuccessful, reject
the temporary harvest and pursue the four possibilities: · if
the polygon fails a clique constraint, make the polygon ineligible
for harvest and return to step 4. · if the polygon fails a zone
constraint, close the zone and return to step 3. · if the polygon
fails an access unit constraint, close the access unit and return
to step 2. · If the polygon fails a range constraint, close the
range and return to step 1.
- Permanently accept the harvest of this polygon. Update attributes
and eligibility of polygon, zone, access unit, and range resulting
from this harvest. Apply the harvest volume to the periodic harvest
target. If the harvest target has been met go to step 7, otherwise
return to step 4.
- Summarize and report harvest statistics for this period. If
the planning horizon has been reached, stop, otherwise age the
forest by one planning period, update attributes and constraints,
and return to step 1.
General Models: Models take inputs,
analyze or manipulate them with an algorithm(s),
and produce outputs.
Input: An input is any data that is
given to the model before the algorithm operates. In ATLAS, inputs
are a GIS
map, growth and yield curves, harvest units,
and modeling parameters.
Output: An output is the data sent
to the user by the model. The basic ATLAS outputs include a graph
of volume harvested over each year in the planning horizon, GIS
maps of where each harvesting event took place, and GIS maps
of the age of each stand in each period. More detailed summaries
of road locations and lengths, treatment breakdowns, constraint
tracking, and other features are also available. See the Technical
Documentation and User's
Guide for more details.
Algorithm: An algorithm is a method
of analyzing or manipulating data. ATLAS employs three algorithms.
The first is an "aging" algorithm - as ATLAS moves forward each
year into the future, the aging algorithm "grows" each stand's age
by one year. The second two are harvesting algorithms. The most
common is "oldest first" - this ranks potential harvest units by
their age. ATLAS attempts to harvest the oldest stands first, subject
to any constraints, when using this algorithm. The other harvesting
algorithm is "closest to the mill". This algorithm ranks potential
harvest units by their distance from a pre-defined point; the nearest
units are listed for harvest first.
Modeling parameters: Modeling parameters
are used to control how the algorithm manipulates the inputs. They
are used to simulate different levels of control by specifying targets
and constraint amounts. ATLAS has many parameters, see the Technical
Documentation and User's
Guide for details.
GIS: Geographical Information Systems.
A computerized mapping system for storing and analyzing spatial
data. The GIS used with Atlas has a map comprised of polygons and
a database containing information about each polygon. Atlas is not
a GIS, but it uses GIS-like tools to analyze harvest policies.
Polygon: a contiguous mapping unit,
linked to characteristics about the unit, such as stand age, site
index, species type, and volume. The polygon's shape describes a
stand's shape and location on the map, while a database contains
the stand's characteristics.
Growth and Yield Curve: a graph describing
merchantable volume in a stand from regeneration to old growth.
There is a different yield curve for each stand
type.
Harvest Unit: a contiguous block of
land harvested under a single silviculture regime. Harvest units
can be groups of polygons, or single stands.
Stand Type: stand types group polygons
into categories to reduce the number of yield curves needed. Polygons
with similar tree species and site indices are grouped into a stand
type and are then "grown" with average values for that stand type.
Site Index: a measure of productivity of
a site. Site index is the height of the average of the several largest
trees on the site at age 50 years.
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