Call for Attendees

Join us as we host the Climate Change Adaptation - Sustainable Forest Management (CCA-SFM) Workshop.

The workshop will be held at the University of British Columbia (UBC) in Vancouver, Canada, from February 14th to 16th, 2011.

Through invited presentations, panel discussion, and a poster session, we seek to engage research and practitioner communities, and provide an opportunity to strengthen and expand networks, on incorporating climate change response within sustainable forest management.

Note: Workshop registration for in-person attendance is now closed. Registration for remote participation and access to the webcast remains open.

Webcast

Registered participants will receive a workshop password/username that will allow access to the webcast during and after the workshop. Use the below links to access each day of the workshop. An instructional demonstration of the webcast can be found at MediaGroup.






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About the Workshop

Forest management in British Columbia and other regions continues to be faced with ecological effects of natural and human-induced stresses, while endeavouring to achieve a wide range of management objectives being requested by governments, the private sector, and communities of varying backgrounds and interests. The idea of sustainable forest management (SFM) has emerged from a growing concern about loss of biological diversity, deforestation in some regions, changing demands for forest products, and high rates of damage from fire, pests, and disease. SFM is described as a paradigm that offers a better balancing of objectives, in line with sustainable development's theoretical balancing of economic, environmental and social objectives. However, the actual mechanics of SFM, as is the case with sustainable development, continue to be a matter of considerable debate. The Montreal Process, ongoing since 1994, outlines a list of criteria and indicators for SFM in temperate and Boreal forests. Twelve countries, including Canada, cooperate in this process.

One of the side effects of unsustainable development is the rapid increase in energy and material consumption that has resulted, among other things, in a continuous increase in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. At current rates, there will be 400 ppm of CO2 in our atmosphere within the next decade, a 1/3 increase in the last century. Climate science research to date has indicated that continued increases in greenhouse gas concentrations would lead to a global average warming of up to 6 degrees C by the end of the 21st century.

Recent observed warming has already been linked to observed increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, so our current climate is no longer completely natural (see IPCC reports at http://www.ipcc.ch). This means that recent climate-related events, including the mountain pine beetle epidemic in BC, the decline of glaciers, and Arctic sea ice, and observed changes in seasonal plant and wildlife growth and migration patterns, can be partly attributable to human-induced climate change. Prediction of future climate change continues to be uncertain, especially regarding regional scale changes in precipitation.

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About the Workshop

This affects predictions of future impacts of climate change, and the assessment of effectiveness of proposed response strategies.

Proposed responses to climate change consist of mitigation and adaptation:

• Mitigation refers to actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, producing alternative low-fossil or non-fossil energy sources, and increasing capabilities to absorb carbon in the biosphere, underground, and in the oceans.
• Adaptation includes reducing vulnerabilities to climate-related stresses through various technological means and changes in planning and governance.

Responses to climate change should have similar attributes and objectives to those of SFM. Indicators related to the carbon cycle are detailed in the Montreal Process, but there is less information on adaptation.

Recent initiatives announced by the BC Future Forest Ecosystem Science Council (FFESC), the Government of Canada's Regional Adaptation Collaboratives (RAC) program, and the assessment of vulnerability of Canada's tree species for the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (Johnston et al., 2009), are indicative of growing interest in exploring how SFM plans can be assessed through a climate change lens in order to provide quantitative indicators of system performance within various scenarios of future climate and development. These are important and timely learning opportunities. These also represent opportunities for science-enabled dialogue on future planning and decision making. The question is: What kind of research should we be conducting in order to support and sustain the learning and dialogue needed to inform decision making on SFM and climate change in the coming years?

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Workshop Program

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MONDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2011

REGISTRATION
   08:00    Sign in, pick up workshop materials
WELCOME (Co-chairs: Stewart Cohen and Bruce Larson)
   08:30    Welcome address from U. British Columbia (David Farrar)
   08:45    Welcoming address from Environment Canada (Stewart Cohen)
GLOBAL TO REGIONAL EXPERIENCES (Co-chairs: Stewart Cohen and Bruce Larson)
   09:00    A global perspective on how climate change could affect                sustainable forest management (John Innes)
   09:30    Activities within FAO/UN to incorporate climate change                aspects in sustainable forest management (Peter Holmgren)
   10:00    Break (30 min)
   10:30    Forests and climate change: Policies and practices in China                (Nuyun Li)
   11:00    Forest contribution to improving adaptation (Balgis Osman-Elasha)
   11:30    Potential impacts of climate change on Australian forests:                Research and management responses (Rod Keenan)
LUNCH (12:00-13:00, 60 min)
   13:00    Using science-management partnerships to develop                climate-change adaptation plans (David Peterson)
   13:30    Enhancing the capacity of Canada's forest sector to adapt to                climate change: A Canadian Council of Forest Ministers initiative                (Kelvin Hirsch)
   14:00    Break (30 min)
PANEL 1: BRITISH COLUMBIA CASES - FUTURE FOREST ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE COUNCIL (Chair: Susanna Laaksonen-Craig)
   14:30    Introductory comments by the chair (Susanna Laaksonen-Craig)
   14:45    The challenge of adaptive integrated development in a changing                climate with reference to two studies: Climate change adaptation                planning for Northwest Skeena Communities (FFESC) and the                Skeena River Water Conservation Project (Dirk Brinkman)
   15:00    Experiences on climate change and forest management in the                South Selkirks region (Natasha Caverly)
   15:15    Incorporating climate change into forest planning: The                                Kamloops Future Forest Project (Harry Nelson)
   15:30    Using red alder as an adaptation strategy to reduce environmental,                social and economic risks of climate change in coastal British                Columbia (Louise de Montigny)
   15:45    Experiences on climate change in the West Kootenay region                (Rachel Holt and Greg Utzig)
   16:00    Questions and answers (30 min)
POSTER SESSION (16:30-17:15)
DINNER AT FAIRMONT WATERFRONT
   17:20    Invited speakers board vehicles at main entrance of Forest Science                Centre
   18:00    Dinner at Fairmont Waterfront hotel

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2011

SCENARIOS AND RESPONSES (Chair: Bruce Larson)
   08:15    Introductory comments by chair (Bruce Larson)
   08:20    Application of Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network                (CCCSN.CA) tools for forestry adaptation (Neil Comer)
   08:45    On the scientific basis of climate change and its impacts on                forests - Hogwash or serious challenge? (Andreas Fischlin)
   09:10    Observed trends in tree mortality in British Columbia and                neighboring regions, and implications for adaptation and                sustainable forest management (Lori Daniels)
   09:35    ClimateBC and its use in predicting response of forest                ecosystems, tree species and populations to climate change in                British Columbia (Tongli Wang)
   10:00    Research activities on vulnerability and adaptive capacity in forestry                and forestry-based communities in Northern Europe                             (Carina Keskitalo)
   10:25    Break (20 min)
PANEL 2: BARRIERS TO INCORPORATING CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE INTO SUSTAINABLE FOREST MANAGEMENT (Chair: Gary Bull)
   10:45    Introductory comments by chair (Gary Bull)
   10:50    Challenges in providing climate change projections                             (Dave Spittlehouse)
   11:05    How ongoing and future trends within the forest industry                             may influence adaptation to climate change (Paul Lansbergen)
   11:20    How ongoing and future trends within park management                             may influence adaptation to climate change (Donald McLennan)
   11:35    How ongoing and future trends in carbon pricing may influence                adaptation to climate change (Andrew Goodison)
   11:50    How ongoing and future trends within forest management in the                Yukon may influence adaptation to climate change (Aynslie Ogden)
   12:05    Questions and answers (25 min)
LUNCH (12:30-13:30, 60 min)
PANEL 3: IDEAS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH-ENABLING CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSES WITHIN SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY MANAGEMENT (Chair: Stewart Cohen)
   13:30    Introductory comments by chair (Stewart Cohen)
   13:40    Research ideas for better understanding of insect and related                disturbances that may influence adaptation to climate change                (Allan Carroll)
   13:55    Linking climate change and adaptive capacity: The role of                institutions and values (Ralph Matthews)
   14:10    Research ideas for incorporating local knowledge and                                experiences in forest practices as part of long-term adaptation to                climate change (Sybille Haeussler)
   14:25    Research ideas for better understanding of how changing                vulnerabilities may influence adaptation to climate change, and                opportunities to engage the model forest network (Mark Johnston)
   14:40    Break (20 min)
   15:00    A student perspective (Student from poster session)
   15:15    Future research needs (John Innes)
   15:30    Questions and answers
WORKSHOP CONCLUSIONS (Co-chairs: Stewart Cohen and Bruce Larson)
   16:00    Final address (Stewart Cohen)

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2011

   08:30    Sign in
   09:00    Climate scenario training session (Neil Comer)
   17:00    Dismissal

Objectives

The objective of this workshop is to explore recent activities on incorporating climate change response within sustainable forest management (SFM), drawing from regional to global perspectives. Through invited presentations and panel discussions, as well as a poster session, we aim to reflect on the current state of knowledge on how climate change response is being incorporated into SFM, including recent experiences on the ground in British Columbia and in other countries, identification of barriers hindering proactive response to cimate change, and emerging ideas for future research.

Speakers and Panellists

Dirk Brinkman

Coast Tsimshian Resources Ltd., Terrace, Canada

Dirk Brinkman is a Canadian eco-entrepreneur and the founder and CEO of Brinkman & Associates Reforestation Ltd, one of the oldest and largest ecosystem restoration companies in the world. In 1970 Brinkman won one of the first independent tree planting contracts in Western Canada, and his group of companies has since expanded and diversified to become an international industry-leader in the management of Canadian forests, urban ecosystems, indigenous resource tenure, REDD and tropical hardwood plantations in Central and South America. He has been the editor of Silviculture Magazine since 1983 and has advised Canada's national and provincial governments on forest industry standards and forest carbon policy. At the 2011 COP 16 conference in Cancun, Brinkman served as Technical Advisor to Papua New Guinea and the Coalition of Rainforest Nations, contributing to the wording and terms of the final REDD+ agreement. An ABCFP Honorary Forester and recipient of the CIF's National Acheivement Award, Dirk Brinkman and his employees recently celebrated the planting of their one-billionth tree in Canada.

Title: The challenge of adaptive integrated development in a changing climate with reference to two studies: Climate change adaptation planning for Northwest Skeena Communities (FFESC) and the Skeena River Water Conservation Project

Abstract: Timber value alone funds almost all of BC's forest management, carrying as external costs the protection of almost all other forest ecosystem values. Over the past decades the number and value of forest ecosystem services has grown while in recent years timber value has declined. Some ecosystem values are recognized as integral to earth systems whose healthy functioning is fundamental to human well-being and the survival of civilization. Particularly vulnerable earth systems include the nitrogen and phosphorous cycles, biodiversity, stable climate, and in many areas a year round reliable supply of fresh water. (ref: Stockholm Resilience Institute). Threatened ecosystem resilience boundaries can increase ecosystem values immeasurably when human life is at stake. Earth system change compels the development of adaptive management. The interdependent dynamic relationships between some of these values also compels the development of integrated multiple resource management. Some values may be exclusive (e.g. timber conservation for carbon or timber harvesting), while others are complimentary. Value choices may have asymmetric outcomes for different stakeholders such as a local community verses a distant owner. Carbon covenants can bind a forest from harvesting for 100 years. The forests and other resources will change, whether from direct human causes or from in-direct human caused or natural processes. Adapting to these changes requires local engagement and local knowledge to fully understand complex dynamics their long term consequences. In the NW Skeena Region we are working with our research partners (Coast Tsimshian Resources, WWF, Cortex, ESSA, UBC, EC, UVic, UNBC) to develop a Management Options Analysis Tool for Adaptive Integrated Development (MOAT-AID), taking into account both local concerns and climate change. At the same time we are discovering that these management options may be no less complex than an ecosystem.

Gary Bull

University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Gary has spent most of his early career working in a consultative capacity with forest products companies, resource based communities, various government agencies and environmental non-governmental organizations. Internationally, he has worked with organizations such as the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna, the International Institute for Environment and Development in London, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in Rome and the US Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. Recently, he has been supervising research projects with CIFOR, World Bank, Shell Canada,Wildlife Conservation Society, WWF, Iisaak Forest Resources Ltd., Forest Trends and FAO. Gary has a background in commerce as well as three degrees in Forestry, specializing in economics and policy. He has an interest in global forestry policy issues and is currently studying forest and timber markets in Asia and ecosystem services markets in Afghanistan, Canada, China, Mozambique and Uganda . He is an advocate for interdisciplinary research.

Alan Carroll

University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Bio: Allan Carroll received his Ph.D. in Population Ecology from the Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management at the University of New Brunswick in 1993. That same year, he joined the Canadian Forest Service as a Research Scientist. In 2009, Allan accepted a position with the Department of Forest Sciences at the University of British Columbia. His research efforts focus primarily on the influence of climate on the dynamics and impacts of forest insect populations. In addition to his role as Associate Professor at the University of British Columbia, Allan has served as an advisor to the Canadian Government, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, and the European Union on issues pertaining to climate change and forest insects. Allan is also a Visiting Scientist with the Canadian Forest Service, and holds appointments as an Adjunct Professor at the University of Victoria and the University of Northern British Columbia.

Title: Research ides for better understanding of insect disturbances that may influence adaptation to climate change

Abstract: Insect herbivory comprises one of the most significant forces of change in forests; annually affecting areas many times greater than that associated with fire. In Alaska and adjacent Yukon Territory, the spruce beetle has caused the mortality of mature spruce trees over approximately 2 million ha since 1990. Further south, in British Columbia, the mountain pine beetle has affected approximately 15 million ha of pine forests since the mid 1990s, and is projected to kill two-thirds of the mature pine in the province before the end of the epidemic. A warming climate is expected to affect insect populations, and the impacts they have in forest ecosystems, by altering the frequency/duration of population fluctuations, modifying rates of herbivory/damage, and causing range shifts and novel host species associations. In this talk I will (i) examine the role that climate change has played in insect outbreaks in North America to date, and (ii) suggest a framework within which to predict future impacts of forest insect outbreaks under climate change.

Natasha Caverly

Turtle Island Consulting, North Saanich, Canada

Title: Experiences on Climate Change and Forest Management in the South Selkirks Region

Abstract: From January 2010 to December 2011, the South Selkirks Climate Change Research Study is examining climate change at the landscape level in the South Selkirks Region of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The research project funded by the Future Forests Ecosystems Scientific Council (FFESC) and BC Hydro entitled, "Climate Change Adaptation Research For Forest and Rangeland Ecosystems: Resiliency Implications at the Landscape Level" focuses on the need to use a holistic approach in addressing climate change - an approach that acknowledges and recognizes social, cultural, ecological and economic interests as a benchmark for forest management practices. The study is led by Dr. John Innes (University of British Columbia - UBC) and his multidisciplinary research team. The South Selkirks Climate Change Research Team is comprised of Aboriginal (Ktunaxa Nation and Métis Nation British Columbia - Kootenays Region), academia, Government of BC, Nature Conservancy of Canada (BC Region), forest industry representatives and consultants who specialize in natural sciences, social sciences (e.g., economics and psychology) and indigenous science. On behalf of the South Selkirks Climate Change Research Team, Dr. Natasha Caverley will provide an overview of the project to date and discuss how the concepts of resiliency and positive psychology are being utilized to understand our changing climate.

Stewart Cohen

(Co-chair)
Environment Canada, Vancouver, Canada

Dr. Stewart J. Cohen is senior researcher with the Adaptation and Impacts Research Section of Environment Canada, and an Adjunct Professor with the Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia (UBC). His research interests are in climate change impacts and adaptation, and exploring participatory approaches for shared learning between researchers and practitioners on adaptation planning. He is currently a member of the advisory committee for the Columbia Basin Trust program--Communities Adapting to Climate Change Initiative. He has also been a member of various author teams for climate change reports in Canada and the United States, and for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. Dr. Cohen teaches a graduate course on climate change at UBC, and has written a textbook (with Melissa Waddell) based on that course, entitled Climate Change in the 21st Century. The book has recently been published by McGill-Queens University Press.

Neil Comer

Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada

Neil Comer is a climatologist and manager of the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN.CA), of the Adaptation and Impacts Research Section (AIRS) of Environment Canada. Neil also has affiliations with the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, and with the Faculty of Environmental Studies at York University. Neil's research advises on the use of climate change models for adaptation issues. He obtained his B.Sc. from York University, and M.Sc. and Ph.D. from McGill University.

Title: The Application of Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN.CA) tools for Forestry Adaptation

Abstract: Results from the most recent IPCC Assessment of 2007 (AR4), have produced a valuable dataset for global climate change projections. In this database of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections, some 24 models are now available. Coupled with additional emission scenario paths and multiple model runs, the number of possible future outcomes number greater than 70, with the expected distribution of model values. This has led to considerable uneasiness within the policy and end-user communities on how to best deal with the overwhelming number of projections available. Using the tools of CCCSN, in addition to individual model scenarios, a multi-model (ensemble) approach to produce climate change projections over Canada is provided on CCCSN. The ensemble approach is by far the most currently accepted method of considering climate change projections versus the acceptance of a single, or limited number of available models. The use of an ensemble projection for input into forest adaptation research will be presented. The Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN.CA) consists of separate nodes, representing different regions of Canada and each with their own research specialty. Each node is hosted in partnership with our university collaborators and the Adaptation and Impacts Research Section (AIRS) of Environment Canada. The network provides an interface for the distribution of climate change scenario information and adaptation research.

Lori Daniels

University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Lori Daniels is an Associate Professor in Geography at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver where she directs the Tree-Ring Lab at UBC. She has a B.Sc. (Ecology) from the University of Manitoba, M.Sc. (Forest Sciences) from the University of British Columbia, and a Ph.D. (Biogeography) from the University of Colorado at Boulder. Her research investigates the effects of climate variation, natural disturbance and human impacts on temperate forests in North and South America. Much of her research has important implications for conservation of biodiversity through sustainable ecosystem management and restoration and is conducted in collaboration with Parks Canada, BC Parks, Foothills Research Institute, Nature Conservancy of Canada, and several industrial partners in BC and Alberta.

Title: Observed trends in tree mortality in BC and neighboring regions, and implications for adaptation and sustainable forest management

Abstract: In a recent collaboration with several forest ecologists, we determined that tree death rates have more than doubled over the last few decades. Our analyses of longitudinal data from unmanaged old forests in the western United States and southwestern British Columbia showed that background mortality rates have increased rapidly in recent decades, with doubling periods ranging from 17 to 29 years among regions. Increases were also pervasive across elevations, tree sizes, dominant genera, and past fire histories. Forest density and basal area declined slightly, which suggests that increasing mortality was not caused by endogenous increases in competition. Because mortality increased in small trees, the overall increase in mortality rates cannot be attributed solely to aging of large trees. Regional warming and consequent increases in water deficits are likely contributors to the increases in tree mortality rates. In this presentation, I will discuss the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest dynamics, as well as interactions with other human impacts, to identify options for adaptation and sustainable forest management in western forests.

Andreas Fischlin

Institute of Integrative Biology, Zurich, Switzerland

Andreas Fischlin, 1949, obtained a master with distinction in Biology and concluded his education with post-graduate studies in Systems and Control Theory, both at ETH Zurich. After completion of an award winning doctoral thesis on the population dynamics of larch bud moth in the Alps in 1982 he did for several years research on various population ecology topics at the University of British Columbia and the Maritimes Forest Research Centre in Canada. Since his return to Switzerland in 1985 he is teaching systems ecology, modeling of ecosystems, and computer science at ETH Zurich and the University of Zurich. For his work on, Teaching Means in the Field of Electrical Engineering, he won the Denzler award 1989 of the Swiss Electrotechnical Association (SEV/ASE). He was a leading designer of the then novel curriculum Environmental Natural Sciences offering its courses as of winter 1987 and a co-founder of the present Department of Environmental Sciences, where he currently heads the Systems Ecology Group. Andreas Fischlin contributed as author to many IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) reports: For instance as Convening Lead Author he was responsible for the chapter, Climate change impacts on forests, of the Second Assessment Report, Climate Change 1995, and more recently as senior Coordinating Lead Author for chapter, Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services, of the Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007, from Working Group II of the IPCC. With this work he was presented the Peace Nobel Prize 2007 as awarded to IPCC. He is member of many scientific organisations, advises since many years as representative of Swiss scientists the Swiss delegation in all UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) negotiations, and has published numerous scientific works, including many papers in peer reviewed journals, on climate change and its impacts on ecosystems, notably forests.

Title: On the scientific basis of climate change and its impacts on forests - Hogwash or serious challenge?

Abstract: Since about 2005 climate change has experienced more attention in the public debate than any other environmental issue before, yet faced recently extraordinary challenges (e.g. Gleick et al., 2010). The talk will present key findings from climate change research, mostly as published in the last IPCC report, and discuss those findings in view of recent research results. Emphasis will be put on what those findings mean for ecosystems, notably forests, on various time scales to discuss possible consequences for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Andrew Goodison

FP Innovations, Vancouver, Canada

Andrew Goodison is the current project manager of the financial modeling component of the Bio Pathways project for FPInnovations. He has been heavily involved in strategy work within the Forest and Paper Industry for the past 12 years and has experience in corporate and operations strategy, valuation, merger integration, acquisitions, and financial modeling (including valuation). His current focus is on the financial implications of the emerging Bio-economy in the forest sector including the impacts of carbon policies on the industry. Prior to joining FPInnovations, he held positions in PwC's Global Forest and Paper Group and IBM as a senior strategy consultant.

Title: How ongoing and future trends in carbon pricing may influence adaptation to climate change

Abstract: Over the past couple of years the forest industry in Canada has been wrestling with the Bio Economy and what it means to them. Daily phones calls from entrepreneurs asking for biomass has created an environment that feels like the dot.com boom. The industry recognizes that there is opportunity in the bio economy but they needed more information and clarity in order to sort out the good from the bad. As a result FPInnovations, FPAC and the Canadian Forest Service launched Bio Pathways with the goal of helping the industry find the right path forward. This study was designed to look at the opportunities in the Bio Economy by looking not only at the economics and markets but also at the various social metrics like employment, GDP and Carbon Footprint of various Bio Economy pathways. This presentation will explore the recent findings from this team with a particular focus on the impact of carbon pricing on the pathways from a high level perspective and from a specific case study in British Columbia. The high level review will discuss how the opportunities shift based on carbon pricing while the case study will look at the specific impact of BC's carbon based policies on a specific pathway. The final focus of the talk is to provoke discussion on the financial and operational issues related to the Carbon and / or Bio Economy.

Sybille Haeussler

U. Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada

Sybille Haeussler is UNBC's research coordinator for the Future Forest Ecosystem Scientific Council which is directing a program of research to help adapt BC's forest and range management framework to anticipated effects of climate change. Dr. Haeussler is a professional forester and research ecologist based in Smithers, BC. She has a BSF from UBC, an MSc in forest ecology from Oregon State University, and a PhD in Environmental Sciences from Université du Québec. Her professional life has involved work with the BC government, a long stretch as a self-employed forestry consultant, and recent work as a post-doctoral scholar and research associate at UBC and UNBC. Sybille is active in community sustainability initiatives and is a director and Past-President of the Bulkley Valley Centre for Natural Resource Research and Management.

Title: Research ideas for better incorporating local knowledge and experiences in forest practices as part of long-term adaptation to climate change

Abstract: British Columbia has magnificent resilient public forests and sees itself as a world leader in forest science and innovative forest management, but these assets cannot be taken for granted and are definitely being put to the test as we cope with a rapidly changing climate, changing demographics and a shrinking industrial forest sector. BC also has highly engaged and opinionated citizens whose diverse knowledge and experience about forest practices needs to be included in a coordinated climate change adaptation strategy. My presentation will summarize priority research needs identified by the forest science community, offer some alternative perspectives on what our research priorities should be, and new and old ideas for ensuring that the many different voices from BC's changing forests have an opportunity to pass on their accumulated wisdom.

Kelvin Hirsch

Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, Canada

Kelvin Hirsch is Director of the Climate Change and Forest Research Program with Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service (CFS). Kelvin began working with CFS in 1982 as a summer student and since then has had the opportunity to pursue his interests in sustainability and stewardship, strategic thinking, and integrated, interdisciplinary team work as a technology transfer specialist, researcher, policy advisor, and most recently as a science Director. For 18 years Kelvin studied forest fires and their management and played a key role in the development of Canada's FireSmart program and the development of the Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy. Presently he leads a team of approximately 35 scientists, technicians, and economists working on climate change issues at the Northern Forestry Centre in Edmonton; coordinates the CFS' national climate change adaptation project, and is the leader of a federal, provincial, territorial team of experts addressing climate change adaptation in Canada's forest sector. Kelvin has a B.Sc.F. from the University of Alberta (1984) and a M.Sc.F. from the University of Toronto (1996). Outside of work Kelvin enjoys relaxing with his wife Mary and their two university-aged sons by participating in a variety of sports, gardening, listening to jazz music, and visiting the Rocky Mountains.

Title: Enhancing the Capacity of Canada's Forest Sector to Adapt to Climate Change: A Canadian Council of Forest Ministers Initiative

Abstract: Federal, provincial, and territorial governments are working collectively under the auspices of the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (CCFM), and at the direction of Canada's Premiers, to enhance the capacity of Canada's forest sector to adapt to climate change. Phase 1 resulted in an analysis of the vulnerability of Canada's major forest tree species and potential adaptation options. Phase 2, to be completed by March 2012, involves: (i) developing and testing a framework, practitioners' guidebook, and organizational readiness evaluation process that collectively will enable members of Canada's forest sector to assess the vulnerability of sustainable forest management under a changing climate and potential adaptation options; (ii) conducting syntheses and analyses on five key aspects of adaptation and sustainable forest management (i.e., assisted migration (science, policy, practice, and ethics), developing and using scenarios in sustainable forest management planning, indicators of sustainable forest management under climate change, governance options for adaptation, and adaptive capacity of SFM systems) to inform jurisdictional policy and practice development; and (iii) enabling the sharing of knowledge and best practices among all members of Canada's forest sector through on-the-ground case studies across Canada; workshops, seminars, and technical/professional papers; and by establishing a pan-Canadian forest vulnerability and adaptation community of practice. This work is led by the CCFM's Climate Change Task Force and involves a core team of 10 individuals plus significant contributions from over 50 other people from governments, industries, academia, and communities in all regions of Canada.

Peter Holmgren

Climate Change and Bioenergy Division-United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome, Italian Republic

Mr Peter Holmgren, a national of Sweden, holds a Ph.D. in Forestry from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Uppsala, Sweden. The focus of his research is forest management, monitoring and economics under multiple management objectives, and his research topics include biometry, soil analyses, hydrology, remote sensing, statistical sampling, as well as spatial and heuristic modeling. Mr. Holmgren has worked for FAO since 1998, since 2007 as Director for Climate, Energy and Land Tenure in the Natural Resources Management Department. In this role he is also the FAO focal point on climate change issues, with a focus on cross-cutting programmes where agriculture, forestry, fisheries and food security issues are brought together in the context of climate change. He has previously been assigned to the Forestry Department as responsible for forest resources development, planted forests, fire management and global and national forest resources assessments. Prior to joining FAO, Mr Holmgren also worked in national forestry programmes development in the Philippines, Pakistan and Kenya, as well as with the private forestry sector developing forest operations planning systems.

Title: Activities within FAO/UN to incorporate climate change aspects in sustainable forest management

Abstract: The presentation will have the Cancun agreement as a starting point and relate forestry to the components of the agreements. Out of the agreed climate funding of 100 b$ per year, forestry will ge a surprisingly large share through the REDD+ mechanism. The attention on forestry and climate change therefore firmly remains with the mitigation side of the equation. When it comes to adaptation, it will be relevant to make investments in forestry, generally to protect, or increase the resilience of, other land uses. The attention on REDD+ has changed the perspective of forests and forestry in many organizations. Since 2008, FAO, UNDP and UNEP are collaborating in the UN-REDD Programme to help developing countries prepare for a REDD+ mechanism. The presentation will review key work areas within this initiative, including MRV & Monitoring, Stakeholder engagement, Governance, and Sector transformation. In this context, the presentation will also highlight possible consequences of REDD+ on traditional forestry institutions. Further, the presentation will relate the concept of sustainable forest management to the new challenges of climate change, both from a political and technical perspective.

Rachel Holt

Veridian Ecological Consulting, Nelson, Canada

Rachel Holt is a biologist and has been applying science and conservation theory to practical problems in BC for the last 12 years.

Title: Resilience and climate change: Adaptation potential for ecological systems and forest management in the West Kootenays

Abstract: This project is a two year (2010 -2011) integrated vulnerability assessment located in the West Kootenays of B.C. The main goals of the project are to increase local knowledge about climate change and ecological resilience, and enhance the capacity of forest managers to adapt to the challenges of climate change. As part of the project we are providing local managers with a potential range of climate futures, identifying the potential impacts to ecosystems associated with those climate futures, and working together with local managers, experts and academics in identifying elements of ecosystems that may confer resilience or vulnerability into the future. Potential management actions and opportunities for increasing resilience and reducing vulnerabilities will be identified, as well as potential barriers to implementing those changes. We are using the vulnerability framework identified and applied nationally and internationally (e.g. by the IPCC) - but also including concepts of resilience to provide a systems structure to assist in identifying adaptation options. In this presentation, in addition to a project overview and a report on progress-to-date, we will comment on climate scenarios for the West Kootenays, and provide thoughts-to-date with respect to applying resilience concepts within a vulnerability assessment framework. Additional information about this project can be found at: www.kootenayresilience.org.

John Innes

University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Title: A global perspective on how climate change could affect sustainable forest management

Abstract: With the likelihood of averting climate change receding into the distance, there is an increasingly urgent need to determine the adaptive strategies that can be adopted as quickly as possible. Responses to climate change are already being observed, yet the forestry community has been slow to develop proactive strategies that will mitigate the impacts of these responses. Forestry has always worked with a long-term perspective, so any management strategies aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems need to balance between short-term and long-term needs. Although solutions specific to local situations are needed, there are many opportunities to share experiences and possible activities. For example, the application of the principles of sustainable forest management is universally accepted as a means of increasing the resilience of our forests to climate change, yet such management appears to be elusive, at least at the global scale. Even in British Columbia, there are questions over the extent to which our management is truly sustainable, and the recent pine beetle epidemic indicates just how sensitive forests can become. Future adaptation strategies need to be based on the best available knowledge, and at a time of shrinking research budgets in most countries, this means much closer cooperation between those developing such strategies. This workshop represents one such opportunity. It will hopefully pave the way for further and deeper collaboration between British Columbia and the global forestry community.

Mark Johnston

Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, Canada

Mark Johnston received a B.Sc. in Forest Resources Management from the University of Minnesota in 1976, an M.Sc. in Forest Science from the University of Alberta in 1981, and a Ph.D. in Tropical Forest Ecology from the College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York in 1990. He held post-doctoral fellowships at the University of Stirling, Scotland and at the University of Minnesota. He currently has adjunct professor appointments with the Soil Science Department and the School of Environment and Sustainability at the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. He has carried out research on the role of fire in the boreal forest, the impacts of timber harvesting on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. In his current position with the Saskatchewan Research Council, he is carrying out research on the impacts of climate change on boreal forests, and on how carbon management can be integrated into sustainable forest management. He is a member of the National Forest Carbon Sinks Committee, a national federal-provincial group developing policy on forest carbon management. He is co-principal investigator of a national study of forest sector climate change vulnerability under the auspices of the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. He is also leading the forestry component of the Prairie Regional Adaptation Collaborative, a federal-provincial climate change study funded by Natural Resources Canada.

Title: Research ideas for better understanding of how changing vulnerabilities may influence adaptation to climate change, and opportunities to engage the model forest network

Abstract: While the general nature of climate change vulnerability in the forest sector is emerging, further research is needed to determine how adaptation can be accomplished. In the biophysical realm, changes in forest productivity, long-term changes in tree species composition through migration and the impacts of changes in disturbance regimes (e.g. fires, insect outbreaks) will dramatically affect wood supply and species composition. Operational impacts (e.g. shorter period of frozen ground) will affect the ability to access and harvest commercial timber stands. All of these impacts need to be better understood at the local level. Forest sector adaptive capacity also needs to be assessed. The determinants of adaptive capacity are generally known but need to be tested for the forest sector. Most important, integrated assessments linking biophysical impacts and adaptive capacity are essential before adaptation planning will be successful. The Canadian Model Forest Network provides an ideal opportunity to carry out these integrated assessments. The 14 model forests across the country, along with the more than 50 model forests globally, provide community-based decision-making bodies focused on sustainable forest management. Strong links to local and aboriginal communities and buy-in by industry and government would encourage assessments of impacts, adaptive capacity and adaptation planning to be carried out at the local level with direct participation by community members and forest practitioners.

Carina Keskitalo

Umea University, Umea, Sweden

E. Carina H. Keskitalo is an Associate Professor of Political Science in the Department of Social and Economic Geography, Umea University, Sweden. She has studied adaptation to climate change in multi-use forests in northern Europe at the community level in several projects, and has recently also studied the development of adaptation strategies in general at national, regional and local level in a number of European countries.

Title: Research activities on vulnerability and adaptive capacity in forestry and forestry-based communities in Northern Europe

Abstract: Adaptation to climate change in forestry has recently gained prominence with the development of national adaptation strategies. The creation of such strategies, in which forestry is often included as an areal land use, may be a result of signals in the EU green and white papers on adaptation, the UNFCCC requirement that countries include adaptation plans in their national communications, and exposure to extreme weather events that may raise awareness of the risks posed by climate change.The measures taken by Sweden in this regard include the establishment of a National Commission on Climate and Vulnerability (2007) and a subsequent bill (2009). Outlining among other things potential risks and possibilities for forestry, these documents conclude that information campaigns will play an important part in supporting adaptation among private forest owners, whose holdings account for a large proportion of the country's forested land. The Commission's results have also been discussed by representatives of forestry companies. Yet, despite policy development and awareness-raising measures, changes in practices within forest management have so far been limited, in particular if compared with the changes in forestry practices in response to EU directives. While this may be natural - compliance with directives is binding whereas integration of adaptation measures is voluntary - it may nevertheless provide i-dications of a need to mainstream adaptation concerns at several levels and as part of policy initiatives beyond adaptation.

Rod Keenan

University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

Professor Rod Keenan has a B. Sc. (Forestry) from the ANU and a PhD in forest ecology from University of British Columbia. He is currently Director of the Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research, a new research partnership between Victorian universities. He was formerly research program leader in the Bureau of Rural Sciences and Head of the Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science at the University of Melbourne. He has research interests in forests and climate change, forest ecosystem services, forest resource assessment and environmental policy and has undertaken research in a number of Australia states and in Canada, Japan and Papua New Guinea.

Title: Potential impacts of climate change on Australian forests: research and management responses

Abstract: Australia has about 150 M ha of forests, 22 percent of the land area. These range from dense, tall forests dominated by eucalypt or rainforest species to open woodland and mallee formations. These forests provide a wide range of values, benefits and services to the Australian community including habitat and conservation, timber water, soil protection and spiritual, recreation, aesthetic and wilderness values. The role of forests in the global carbon cycle is an increasingly important policy issue. Australia has a highly diverse and variable climate and its forests are well-adapted to climate variation. However, human-induced climate change could result in changes in climatic conditions that are well beyond historical rates and beyond the recent experiences of forest managers. This presentation focuses on the potential impacts of climate change on native forests and plantations in southern Australia. This region has already experienced a strong drying and warming trend and a high incidence of severe bushfires over the last 15 years. Future changes are likely to include rising CO2, increasing temperatures and an overall decrease and changing seasonal patterns in rainfall. This is likely to result in increasing bushfire risk, changes in forest productivity (positive and negative), changing phenology of flowering and seeding, increased bushfire risk and changes in the distribution and composition of forest ecosystems. Current research on forests and climate change is reviewed and potential adaptation responses are discussed.

Susanna Laaksonen-Craig

Deputy Chief Forester, British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Victoria, Canada

Paul Lansbergen

Forest Products Association of Canada, Ottawa, Canada

Paul has two degrees in Economics. In January 1995, he started on Parliament Hill as a political advisor. In October 1998, he moved to the Canadian Fertilizer Institute as Manager, Communications. During his tenure at CFI, Paul was the lead author of the Institute's white paper on climate change and was instrumental in advancing the Institute's tax policy positions. Paul joined FPAC in February 2002 as Director, Taxation and Business Issues, and was appointed Association Secretary later in the same year. Since joining FPAC, some of Paul's contributions include securing federal tax policy changes related to bioenergy and playing an integral role in climate change negotiations with the federal government. Paul's role at FPAC changed in the fall of 2008 and he is now focused more exclusively on energy and climate change issues. Paul has made countless presentations related to the forest products industry and has participated on two advisory committees and a standards development technical committee. In his spare time, Paul volunteers with the Canadian Breast Cancer Foundation CIBC Run for the Cure and plays among the trees at his cottage.

Title: How ongoing and future trends within the forest industry may influence adaptation to climate change

Abstract: The Canadian forest industry has suffered unprecedented economic circumstances for much of the last decade. Structural declines in North American paper markets, the Softwood Lumber dispute, rapid and sustained appreciation of the Canadian dollar, the mountain pine beetle epidemic, and a complete collapse in the U.S. housing market are the most obvious challenges. But the industry has learned from this that its current business model is seriously flawed if not broken. A transformation of the industry is afoot and Canada's next generation forest industry will produce a much broader array of products and extract more value from our forest resources. The industry can produce not only its traditional suite of products but also a myriad of new bio-products - energy, chemicals and other materials. The combination of traditional and emerging value pathways may influence how the industry sustainably manages our forests. As companies contemplate the various pathways to transformation, they each have to consider climate change impacts on Canada's forests and our collective capacity to adapt. This presentation will highlight some of these trends and suggest implications for proactive adaptation - both in the forest and at the mill site.

Bruce Larson

(Co-chair)
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Bruce Larson is the Head of the Forest Resources Management Department in the Faculty of Forestry at the University of British Columbia where he is also the FRBC Chair of Silviculture. Before coming to UBC he was a faculty member at Yale University and the University of Washington. Bruce is co-author of the books Forest Stand Dynamics and The Art and Practice of Silviculture: applied forest ecology. He recently led a large SFM project assessing the role of forest certification on forest management practices in Canada and is now part of a research team investigating the potential of red alder management as an adaptation for climate change.

Nuyun Li

State Forestry Administration, Beijing, China

Dr. Nuyun Li is an Executive Deputy Director for Office of Combating Climate Change, State Forestry Administration, P.R.China, and also Secretary-General of China Green Carbon Foundation. Dr. Li is a pioneer of forestry carbon in China and the founder of the China Green Carbon Foundation. She developed an operation mechanism for China Green Carbon Foundation. She is in charge of formulating the forest carbon policies, technical specification and standards in China based on the China's situation as well as international practices. She devoted herself to the work of conducting the first CDM Forest Carbon Project in the world, presiding the project on the Selection and Evaluation of Prioritized Region for China's CDM Forestation and Reforestation, carrying out research on carbon accounting and monitoring in China, and promoting China's forest ecological service market development. She servers as a State Committee member of International Human Dimensions Program on Global Environmental Change ( IHDP), Vice Chairman of Beijing Forestry Society (BFS). Her research interests are focused on forests and climate change, forestry carbon sequestration; ecosystem services etc.. She published 6 books including Forestry Carbon Sequestration in China, Carbon Inventory Methods, Afforestation and Climate Change-Carbon Sequestration Research etc.

Title: Forests and climate change: Policies and practices in China

Abstract: China makes a great contribution to combating climate change through fast expanding vegetation cover and positive protection of forest resources. The experiences from the China National Key Forestry Programs including Natural Forest Protection and Conversion of Cropland to Forests Program have provided the experiences for REDD+ in its policy design and the compensation mechanism. Forest plays an important role in mitigation and adaptation to climate changes, and forestry has been listed as a key sector to achieve China's voluntary reduction targets as well as national strategy of coping with climate change. Aiming at combating climate change, China Green Carbon Foundation was established and operated as the first nation-wide non-profit public foundation. The carbon afforestation project supported by CGCF has not only increased carbon sinks, but also improved forest multiple benefits including enhancement of biodiversity conservation, environmental protection, and local community development. In addition, CGCF has endeavored in formulating the technology and standard systems based on the China's practice conditions and met with the international criteria, promoting public awareness of combating climate change, fostering the growth of China's forest ecological service market and exploiting the pilot work of carbon trade integrated with China's forest ownership reform. Finally, China's forestry is expected to be of whole function and important role in combating climate change from the five measures of renewing vegetation cover, enhancing forest management and protection, promoting the utilizing of wood products and developing bio-energy, etc.

Ralph Matthews

University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Ralph Matthews was born and grew up in Newfoundland. He is currently Professor of Sociology, at UBC and Professor Emeritus of Sociology at McMaster University. He was Director of the British Columbia node of the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN-BC). He has served as President of the Canadian Sociology and Anthropology Association, and Editor of the Canadian Review of Sociology. He was recently elected President of the International Sociological Association's Research Committee 23, Science and Technology and also recently appointed to the American Sociological Association's 'Task Force on Sociology and Climate Change'. Professor Matthews' research activities include The Resilient Communities Project (www.resilientcommunitiesproject.ca) that focused on the role of social capital in community economic and social development, and The Coastal Communities Project (www.coastalcommunitiesproject.ca) now an on-going initiative that works with First Nation and settler communities in coastal British Columbia around issues of governance; environment and resource management; education; and health. His most recent environmental research has included a study of how First Nation and settler communities in coastal British Columbia understand and respond to environmental changes (www.coastalclimatechange.ca), and an on-going study on partnership with the Centre for Indigenous Environmental Research (CIER) on climate change impacts on First Nation communities. His on-going study in Whitehorse, Yukon focuses on the adaptive capacity of 'Arctic Gateway Cities' to deal with climate change and sustainability (www.whitehorseclimatechange.ca). He also is part of a research team investigating the issues of governance capacity and community responses to ocean related climate change in four communities in Canada and four in the West Indies (www.coastalchange.ca). In addition, he directs the social research component of a multidisciplinary study of the impact of climate change on forest communities in N.W. British Columbia.

Title: Linking climate change and adaptive capacity: The role of institutions and values

Abstract: The presentation will review a series of studies in British Columbia and Yukon that have focused on assessing the capacity of communities to respond to climate change. These include: (1) A study of environmental values in six coastal BC communities (the C5 Project); (2) an analysis of the capacity of the City of Whitehorse, as an example of Arctic Gateway Cities to respond to changing environment and changing environmental values (An IPY-CAVIAR project; (3) a study of community responses to ocean related climate change in four communities in Canada and four in the West Indies (the C-Change Project); and, (4) an on-going FFESC study of climate change adaptation in four communities Northwest Skeena. The presentation will focus on the analytic framework that we have been developing through these studies, which focuses on the capacity of 'actors' operating within institutional context to make effective change, and on the place of social and cultural values in that process. Particular attention will be paid to the research tools developed and utilized in this analysis.

Donald McLennan

Parks Canada, Hull, Canada

Dr. McLennan did his undergraduate botany degree at Mount Allison University, has an M.Sc. in palynology from Simon Fraser University and completed a Ph.D. in Forest Ecology at the University of British Columbia. Over the last eight years, Donald McLennan has led a team of Parks Canada scientists in the development and delivery of the Parks Canada Ecological Integrity (EI) Monitoring and Reporting Program for southern national parks. Dr. McLennan is presently working to help establish EI monitoring in Canada's northern national parks. He is leading an intergovernmental team to develop ecosystem inventories and satellite-based monitoring methods for assessing ecological change in tundra ecosystems. Before his work with Parks Canada, Dr. McLennan owned a small ecosystem consulting company in British Columbia where he specialized in ecosystem mapping, riparian management, professional training, and the development and application of ecosystem-based land use approaches.

Louise de Montigny

BC Ministry of Forest Resources, Victoria, Canada

Title: Using red alder as an adaptation strategy to reduce environmental, social and economic risks of climate change in coastal BC

Abstract: The increased use of red alder (Alnus rubra) is an adaptation strategy that could reduce environmental, social and economic risks of climate change in coastal B.C because: the range of red alder is expected to increase with climate change; red alder can be grown both as a short rotation, high value crop and in mixedwood plantations, providing a diversity of wood products, a good return on investment, and jobs for rural communities; and alder improves long-term site productivity and ecosystem resiliency. This Future Forest Ecosystems Science Council (FFESC) funded project uses a multidisciplinary, collaborative approach to address information gaps that must be addressed before overcoming barriers to the increased use of red alder on the coast: 1) the effects of red alder densities on conifer and mixedwood stand development and the influence of site factors and climate change on these interactions in order to recommend best management practices under a changing climate; 2) red alder's ability to adapt vs. acclimate to changes in climate, needed for family selection for red alder tree improvement and planting programs that will be acceptable over the next 40 to 60 year period; 3) the geographic extent of red alder productivity in the future with respect to the expected migration of alder to sites that are currently too cold for alder survival and growth; 4) the socioeconomic implications of short-rotation red alder and mixedwoods plantations across the landscape and what steps need to be taken to develop an integrated hardwood forest sector value chain industry on the coast.

Harry Nelson

University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Harry Nelson is an Assistant Professor in the Faculty of Forestry at UBC. His area of research is in resource economics and policy analysis, specializing in forestry. Along with his research into the impacts of climate change on how we manage forests in Canada, he has also studied and written a number of reports and articles on how current institutional arrangements (such as tenure agreements and stumpage systems) influence not only how we manage our forests but also the effect these have on the economic conditions under which firms operate in Canada. In addition to his academic research, he has provided advice to First Nations, Provincial Governments, the Federal Government, and Canadian forest product companies on a range of issues involving these different aspects of Canadian forest policy as well as the economic impact of trade actions on the forest sector, the effect of industry structure on forest product markets, and the influence of non-market factors such as certification, international environmental agreements, and ethical investing on the environment in which firms conduct their business. Title: Incorporating climate change into forest planning: the Kamloops Future Forest Project

Abstract: Changing climate conditions will affect how trees and stands grow and develop, altering forest landscapes and conditions and in turn their ability to meet the goods and services we expect from those forests. While it is recognized that existing policies and practices might need to be adapted to better reflect these future changed conditions, it becomes more difficult in identifying what specific changes need to be made, where the complexity of managing forest ecosystems is increased by the uncertainty brought about by climate change (and how those systems will respond). In this project we directly address this complexity in order to investigate what policies and practices might lead to improved outcomes, relative to a Business as Usual case in which we maintain current forest management strategies. We do this through a collaborative process involving local experts, stakeholders and researchers, using models that can incorporate climate change and its biophysical effects. This also involves the selection of an actual forest area, as these changes and vulnerabilities will be expressed through initial starting conditions and the existing forest resource and the changes that may take place on the landscape. We also draw upon an ongoing dialogue first established through the Kamloops Future Forestry strategy that used future climate scenarios to identify likely impacts, and associated vulnerabilities (both from an ecological perspective and in terms of meeting management objectives). That dialogue also pointed towards possible directions for new management actions to address those vulnerabilities. This next stage of the Kamloops Future forestry strategy is then designed to quantitatively assess different management options across different climate scenarios and assess their robustness, given existing climatic and scientific uncertainties.

Aynslie Ogden

Yukon Government, Whitehorse, Canada

Dr. Aynslie Ogden joined the Executive Council Office in Yukon government as senior science advisor in October 2010. Involved in leading and coordinating research in Yukon for the past 10 years, Aynslie's experience includes: managing a research network on climate change impacts and adaptation (C-CIARN North) as the first coordinator of Yukon College's Northern Climate ExChange; establishing a partnership-based interdisciplinary scientific research program for Yukon's Forest Management Branch; completing PhD research -- funded in part by a SSHRC Canada Graduate Scholarship, Government of Yukon, Canada Model Forest Network, the Champagne and Aishihik First Nations Government, Environment Canada's Northern Ecosystems Initiative and the National Science Foundation's Climate Decision Making Centre -- through the active partnership and involvement of a variety of local governments and stakeholder groups; and securing funding for graduate student and post-doctoral research on sustainable forest management and climate change as adjunct professor at the Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia. Aynslie was a recent member of the International Union of Forest Research Organizations' Expert Panel on climate change adaptation which recently prepared a report for the United Nations Forum on Forests. She has also played a lead role in developing an adaptation guidebook for the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. Aynslie is registered with professional associations in B.C as a forester, agrologist and biologist.

Title: How ongoing and future trends within forest management in the Yukon may influence future adaptation to climate change

Abstract: In light of climate change, how does the Yukon define SFM? What adaptations need to be in place to achieve SFM in the Yukon? What are the barriers to implementing needed adaptations? What kind of research should we be conducting in order to support and sustain the learning and dialogue needed to inform decision making on SFM and climate change in the coming years in the Yukon? This panelist will explore challenges and opportunities for incorporating climate change responses into sustainable forest management in the Yukon. Recent research shows that practitioners in the Yukon view the objectives of SFM and the objectives of climate change adaptation to be synonymous. However, even thought this jurisdiction is facing rapid ecological changes driven by climate change, and is characterized by a relatively high level of awareness of climate change and its implications, forestry planning processes have yet to proactively manage the risks that climate change may pose to the ability of forest managers to achieve the stated goals and objectives of sustainable forest management. Despite this, forest management plans do incorporate some examples of 'best management practices' for sustainable forest management that are also consistent with appropriate climate adaptation responses. In addition, forest practitioners in southwest Yukon have identified a comprehensive list of research needs to support ongoing adaptation efforts.

Balgis Osman-Elasha

African Development Bank, Tunis, Tunisia

Balgis Osman-Elasha has Ph.D. and B.Sc. (Honours) degrees in Forestry Science and an MSc in Environmental Science at University of Khartoum. She has extensive experience in climate change studies with focus on human dimension of global environmental changes and sustainable development. Since 2009 she has worked as an adaptation expert for the African Development Bank (AfDB), Tunis, as a forestry expert at the Forests National Corporation, and as a senior researcher at the Climate Change Unit - Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources (HCENR), Sudan. She is also an Associate Professor at Azhari University, Khartoum. Balgis won the UNEP Champions of the Earth to outstanding environmentalists (http://www.unep.org/champions/laureates/2008) and was also a co-author of the IPCC (Nobel Peace Prize winner, 2007). She is a member of the expert panel on Adaptation of Forests to Climate Change 2008 and a coordinating lead author of the Global Assessment Report, Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change - IUFRO 2008, and Vice Chair Advisory Board CC Adaptation in Africa (CCAA).

Title: Forest contribution to improving adaptation

Abstract: For long times discussion on forests and climate change had disproportionately focused on mitigational role of forests, with discussions on adaptation focusing mainly around adaptation of forests species to climate change; ignoring the role that forests can play in improving the adaptive capacity of local people. IUFRO Report "Adaptation of Forest and People to Climate Change, 2009"-emphasized this role and highlighted the importance of promoting sustainable forest management, local processing and marketing of NWFPs for enhancing income and buffering local livelihoods against climate change impacts. Further on, it underlined the contribution of local & IK to community's adaptation, sustainable livelihoods and cultural conservation. My presentation will shed light on the relevant findings of the Report and will discuss how better results could have been achieved if national and international efforts had given more emphasis to approaching SFM for rural development, improving adaptation and mitigating emissions.

David Peterson

US Forest Service, Seattle, USA

Dave Peterson is a Research Biologist with the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station in Seattle and is Professor in the School of Forest Resources, University of Washington. He directs the Fire and Environmental Research Applications team which conducts research on fire science, fuels, and climate change. He has conducted research on fire ecology and climate change in mountain ecosystems throughout the western United States, and has published 200 scientific articles and three books. He is a principal investigator for the Western Mountain Initiative and as a contributing author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was a co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He is currently working on hazardous fuel treatment issues and on adaptation options for managing natural resources in a warmer climate. Dave lives in Skagit County, Washington, where he and his wife Linda enjoy working on their Tree Farm, gardening, hiking, and skiing.

Title: Using Science-Management Partnerships to Develop Climate-Change Adaptation Plans

Abstract: The U.S. Forest Service is using science-management partnerships, in collaboration with the National Park Service and other stakeholders, to develop climate-change adaptation plans across large landscapes in the western United States. This approach is based on collaboration between research scientists and resource managers over a year or more and consists of: (1) education for resource management personnel and identification of key issues, (2) vulnerability assessment focused on sensitivity of resources to climate change, and (3) development of strategic and tactical options for adapting resource management to climate change. Vulnerability assessment is synonymous with risk assessment, and adaptation is synonymous with risk management, but with a focus on issues that are highly relevant to sustainable resource management and to local priorities, and for which viable management options are available. In a recently completed project in Washington (USA), Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park developed a joint adaptation plan for managing water, roads, fisheries, vegetation, and wildlife. Despite disparate policy objectives, focusing on a shared landscape and a common vision for addressing the effects of climate change provided the basis for an effective collaboration. A new adaptation partnership among two national forests and two national parks in north-central Washington is underway, and the three-step approach based on science-management partnerships is now being implemented throughout the United States.

David Spittlehouse

B.C. Ministry of Forests, Victoria, Canada

Dave Spittlehouse is a forest climatologist with the Innovation Branch of the BC Ministry of Forest, Mines and Lands. He has 30 years experience in forest climatology, hydrology and climate change and is involved in a research projects in these areas.

Title: Challenges in Providing Climate Change Projections

Abstract: Climate change data from global climate models (GCMs) are readily available as changes in mean monthly conditions averaged over large geographic areas. There is a high degree of uncertainty in these projections of future climate because of the uncertainty in future global emission of greenhouse gases. Uncertainty also comes from how the GCMs represent the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land. Impact analyses and vulnerability assessments usually require data at much finer spatial and temporal scales than is provided by GCMs. Downscaling GCM data to meet these needs further increases the level of uncertainty in the projected climate. Suggestions for considering this uncertainty, selecting and downscaling GCM projections, and methods for delivering and using these data will be reviewed.

Greg Utzig

Veridian Ecological Consulting, Nelson, Canada

Greg Utzig is Greg is a soil scientist and conservation ecologist who has over 35 years of experience in various aspects of land use planning, forest management and biodiversity protection.

Title: Resilience and climate change: Adaptation potential for ecological systems and forest management in the West Kootenays

Abstract: This project is a two year (2010 -2011) integrated vulnerability assessment located in the West Kootenays of B.C. The main goals of the project are to increase local knowledge about climate change and ecological resilience, and enhance the capacity of forest managers to adapt to the challenges of climate change. As part of the project we are providing local managers with a potential range of climate futures, identifying the potential impacts to ecosystems associated with those climate futures, and working together with local managers, experts and academics in identifying elements of ecosystems that may confer resilience or vulnerability into the future. Potential management actions and opportunities for increasing resilience and reducing vulnerabilities will be identified, as well as potential barriers to implementing those changes. We are using the vulnerability framework identified and applied nationally and internationally (e.g. by the IPCC) - but also including concepts of resilience to provide a systems structure to assist in identifying adaptation options. In this presentation, in addition to a project overview and a report on progress-to-date, we will comment on climate scenarios for the West Kootenays, and provide thoughts-to-date with respect to applying resilience concepts within a vulnerability assessment framework. Additional information about this project can be found at: www.kootenayresilience.org.

Tongli Wang

Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics, Department of Forest Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Tongli Wang is a forest geneticist and Associate Director at the Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics at the Department of Forest Sciences, University of British Columbia. He received his Master's and Ph.D. degrees at the University of Helsinki, Finland in 1992 and 1996. He has been with the Department of Forest Sciences, UBC since then. Tongli Wang has recently been working on several climate-change projects including 1) developing climate models; 2) predicting responses of ecosystems, species ranges and populations to climate change; and 3) developing a climate based seed-transfer system.

Title: ClimateBC and its use in predicting responses of forest ecosystems, tree species and populations to climate change in British Columbia

Abstract: High-resolution climate data have become essential in natural resource management and climate change studies. ClimateBC, a widely used climate model, provides scale-free spatial climate data for BC and the Yukon, and has recently been expanded to cover western North America (ClimateWNA). The model generates up to 85 climate variables for historical years (1901-2009) and future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). It has been widely used in different fields and has started to change the way researchers design experiments and analyze data. At the Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics (CFCG) in collaboration with Ministry of Forests, Mines and Lands, we use this climate model to predict responses of BC ecosystems, tree species and populations to climate change in British Columbia (BC). Since these BC ecosystems (biogeoclimatic ecosystem classification (BEC) zones) are used as a fundamental framework for forest resource management practices, predicted shifts in bioclimate envelopes of BEC units (also called "flying BEC zones") provide a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies for a changing climate. A growing number of research projects have been using this information. We are in the process of developing a climate based seed-transfer system by adapting the current geographically based seed-transfer system to the climatically based "flying BEC zones". At the CFCG, a "pipeline" has been in place to effectively connect the high-resolution climate model to predicting responses of forest ecosystems, and to developing strategies for forest adaptation to climate change.

Poster Presentations

Skeena River Water Conservation Project

James Casey¹

(1) WWF-Canada, Vancouver, Canada

The Skeena River Water Conservation Project is part of the Regional Adaptation Collaborative that will enable Canadians to be better prepared to adapt to changes in the climate by providing them with adaptation knowledge, tools, networks and other resources. The SRWCP is jointly led by WWF-Canada and Coast Tsimshian Resources with federal funding support through Natural Resources and a matching contribution from the Coca-Cola Foundation. The SRWCP will develop and test an approach for managing water values and resource development, using existing land management objectives and scenarios about possible future conditions. A Cortex Consultants is interacting with technical advisors from WWF-Canada, CTR, government agencies, First Nations, and academia, to obtain specialist knowledge about disturbance processes and their effects on water, biodiversity, and economic values. This forward-thinking approach to resource management is: (1) Community-focused: The project brings together people with resource management responsibilities to address emerging issues of water conservation in the context of resource development in the watersheds. (2) Integrative: The project will design a framework for implementing the guidance obtained in previous regional and sub-regional planning initiatives. (3) Scenario-based: The project will develop several scenarios to explore the impacts of resource development and climate change effects on future environmental services. (4) Strategic: Through scenario-building, the impacts of most resource development activities planned in the region will be integrated and projected as much as 150 years into the future. The scenarios could provide a basis for developing operational ground rules in the study area.
Keywords: freshwater, forestry, scenarios, adaptation

DYNA-PLAN model for simulating and optimizing landscape-level forest management

Michael Gerzon¹

(1) Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

DYNA-PLAN is a forest estate model. It is capable of simulating forest ecosystem dynamics while also optimizing harvest schedules. GIS data provides input for the model. Landbase is separated to raster cells that represent forested stands. Stands can have multiple eligible treatment regimes that the model can select from. (These treatments and stand dynamics should be provided by separate stand-level model). Once a specific treatment regime is initiated by the model, it implements a set of management activities at predetermined times. The model selects harvest timing and treatment regimes for each stand over time that will optimize user defined objectives. Common objectives include maximization of income value while maintaining specific levels of old-growth forest or wildlife habitat. DYNA-PLAN is unique in its ability to optimize harvest decisions using a decentralized approach. Optimal solutions are first determined for each stand while considering the state of its neighbours (a stand tries to be similar to its neighbours). Where necessary to meet landscape-level objectives, local stand-level decisions are favored or penalized to satisfy global goals. Such process is similar to real world management where local decisions influence the whole landbase and where local management is regulated by global government policies. As DYNA-PLAN functionality relies upon input from stand-level models, it can be employed in any geographical region. The model was already implemented in analysis of forest management in north-eastern Ontario (Romeo Malette forest). Present projects are focused on British Columbia (one in Kamloops Timber Supply Area and one in San Jose Watershed). These projects are dealing with impact of climate change on forest management. Keywords: landscape modeling, forest management, optimization, ecosystem management

Estimating British Columbia forest ecosystem carbon stocks and their changes between 2000 and 2009 from National Forest Inventory photo plots: A modelling approach

Ching-Lin (Qinglin) Li¹, Christine Fletcher¹, Xiaoping Yuan¹

(1) Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch, Ministry of Forests, Mines, and Lands, Victoria, British Columbia

Forest ecosystems can act as a net carbon source or sink depending on the severity of natural and/or anthropogenic disturbances. Perspectives differ on how best to manage forests to sequester more carbon as an approach to mitigating climate change. Climate change induces more irregular, extreme, and unpredictable natural disasters which tend to reduce forest ecosystem carbon stocks and may also change carbon cycle pathways. Thus, a clear understanding of forest ecosystem carbon stocks and their changes influenced by disturbances would facilitate strategic planning and decision-making processes. In 2000, the British Columbia (BC) and federal governments jointly established a complete set of national forest inventory photo plots that provides a systematic 20 km by 20 km grid across BC. There are a total of 2419 plots, each measuring 2 km by 2 km, representing about 1% of BC land mass. A series of re-measurements and updates was finished in 2009. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector version 3 (CBM-CFS3) was used to calculate total biomass carbon (TBC) that includes stem, branch, foliage, and roots, and total ecosystem carbon (TEC) that includes TBC plus dead organic matter and soil carbon for each of the NFI plots. The CBM-CFS3 is a stand-to-landscape level carbon budget model that uses input data from the forest inventory, disturbances, and growth and yield data to derive estimates of ecosystem carbon. The disturbances included in this analysis were wild forest fires, timber harvesting, and insect infestations, mainly mountain pine beetle (MPB). The current version CBM-CFS3 does not have the capability to simulate climate change on forest ecosystem carbon cycling, therefore, the 30-year average normal temperature for each timber supply area was used to drive the dead organic matter decay function at stand initialization. In 2009, BC's total forest ecosystem and biomass carbon stocks were 15.2 (±1.7%) and 5.4 (±1.8%) billion tonnes, respectively. Between 2000 and 2009, ecosystem carbon losses were 165.9 (±23.5%) million tonnes in TBC and 112.3 (±32.6%) million tonnes in TEC. During the analysis period, BC forest ecosystems acted as a net carbon source due to the MPB infestation, timber harvesting, and wild fires. We acknowledge that there are large uncertainties in this analysis associated with photo plot data and models; but this first attempt in estimating BC forest ecosystem carbon stocks and their changes by using a statistically valid sample provides an encouraging starting point for explore the potentials in developing sustainable forest management indicators, in monitoring forest ecosystem carbon dynamics under climate change, and in verifying and calibrating carbon models.
Keywords: climate change, National Forest Inventory photo plots, carbon budget model, sustainable forest management

Interim measures for the assisted range and population expansion of Western Larch for use as a climate change adaptation strategy in British Columbia: Bringing science into the realm of policy and practice

Leslie McAuley¹, Matthew LeRoy¹, Lee Charleson¹

(1) BC Ministry of Forests, Mines and Lands, Tree Improvement Branch

Climate change adaptation strategies such as climate-based tree species range and population expansion support British Columbia's Climate Action Secretariat that envisions that "British Columbia is prepared for and resilient to the impacts of climate change." This overarching vision includes the need to "make adaptation a part of the BC Government's business, ensuring that climate change impacts are considered in planning and decision-making across government" and "to assess risks and implement priority adaptation actions in key climate sensitive sectors." The BC Ministry of Forests, Mines and Lands, Stewardship Division has recently begun to re-focus its policy and practices through a climate change adaptation lens. The Chief Forester's Standards for Seed Use were amended in June 2010 to allow for the limited use of western larch (Lw) beyond its contemporary range based on recent climate modelling and scientific analysis (Rehfeldt and Jaquish, March 2010). Using bioclimate models, provenance test data and a computer-simulated decision classification key the presence-absence of tree species can be predicted under future climate scenarios. The purpose of this particular policy initiative was to develop an interim measure for the assisted range and population expansion of western larch (Lw) in areas that are projected to be climatically suitable for the year 2030. The intended outcome of this policy initiative is to increase tree species and genetic diversity at the landscape level; maintain or enhance future timber supplies; and to reduce tree species vulnerability. Policy changes are considered interim until which time a more comprehensive climate-based seed transfer system can be fully implemented for use across British Columbia.

Assessing community capacity to respond to climate change in the Northwest Skeena

Ralph Matthews¹, Robin Sydneysmith¹, Jordan Tesluk¹, Georgia Piggot¹

(1) Department of Sociology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Interior BC communities were surprised and devastated by the mountain pine beetle impacts on their forest ecosystems and forest-dependent communities. For First Nations and municipalities in the Northwest Skeena region, avoiding similar regional climate shocks will challenge community resources and resourcefulness. The Future Forest Ecosystems Scientific Council (FFESC) project, "Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Northwest Skeena Communities" seeks to build regional adaptive capacity in the Northwest Skeena region to address the impacts of climate change. This project combines biophysical modelling, social science, and community engagement in a participatory approach to build regional capacity to prepare and respond to climate change. This poster will outline the methodology adopted in the social science component of the "Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Northwest Skeena Communities" study, which focuses on assessing current community, governance, and resource management capacity to cope with climate change. The social, economic and governance analysis in this study incorporates multiple and complementary levels of inquiry: (1) individual; (2) organizational; and (3) institutional analysis - all grounded in a focus on, (4) community capacity to accurately assess the impacts of climate change on local and regional forest and aquatic ecosystems, and on their capacity to respond effectively to the challenges climate change will bring.
Keywords: adaptive capacity, environmental governance

Climate change adaptation planning for Northwest Skeena Communities

Katie McPherson¹

(1) Brinkman Forests and Coast Tsimshian Resources, Terrace, Canada

Coast Tsimshian Resources, LLP (CTR) and its managing operator Brinkman Forests, are leading projects to engage widespread participation from public, private, and academic partners in order to identify and gain support for innovative practices and policies that will promote long-term environmental resilience, cultural sustainability, and socio-economic stability in Northern resource-dependent communities. Through interdisciplinary research that incorporates traditional ecological knowledge, Brinkman is working towards developing a framework for Multi-Value Adaptive Integrated Tenure. The FFESC funded 'Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Northwest Skeena Communities' project aligns local community values with scientific research and seeks to understand the adaptive capacity of communities and institutions to respond to climate change impacts. The project utilizes predictive modeling to illustrate changes in forest composition as a result of potential future climate scenarios, and includes research to understand the combined impacts of land management and climate change on fisheries sensitive watersheds. Inter-linked with the FFESC project, the 'Skeena River Watershed Conservation Project' explores options for managing critical natural resources and conserving important freshwater values by analyzing climate change, disturbance, and land-use scenarios. The next steps in these projects involves the identification of policy options for improved governance to promote diversification of the forestry sector and the co-management of multiple natural resources and non-timber forest values. Brinkman Forests is working with a range of stakeholders to mobilize this interdisciplinary research towards positive policy development that will facilitate innovation and action in the face of imminent and uncertain climate change impacts.
Keywords: local values, adaptation, resilience, integrated land management

Process-based regional dynamic vegetation modelling of the Skeena Region of British Columbia: Investigating forest response to projected climate change

Joe Melton^1,2, Don Robinson³, Jed O. Kaplan¹

(1) ARVE Group, School of Architecture, Civil & Environmental Engineering (ENAC), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland; (2) School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Centre for Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Victoria, Canada; (3) ESSA Technologies, Vancouver, Canada

Effective adaptation and mitigation of anticipated climate change requires quantitive 'climate-aware' projections of possible future scenarios to inform forest management practices. A process-based dynamic regional vegetation model (DRVM) (LPJ-GUESS; Smith et al. 2001, Tang et al. 2010) has been adapted to investigate the effect of climate change to the Skeena region of British Columbia. The DRVM uses downscaled GCM climate allowing model simulations with a grid resolution of 30 arc seconds (~ 1 square km). To investigate possible shifts in species distributions and abundance due to climate change, 15 tree species have been parameterized for the Skeena region including both commericial and non-commerical species. The DRVM explicitly simulates growth and competition among individual plants with stochastic establishment and disturbance (fire), necessitating replicate patches to achieve statistically robust results. The LPJ-GUESS model is particularly well-suited to examining possible future trajectories of the forests in the Skeena region as the model is explicitly sensitive to CO2 concentrations, moisture, and temperature. Additionally, the DRVM has been adapted to allow investigation of the effects of different forest management practices on variables such as soil carbon, vegetation carbon stocks, NEE, and NPP. We also account for past land-use in the region to improve the accuracy of the model projections. The use of a DRVM is an important complement to regression-based stand-level modelling providing process-based information about forest changes. This biophysical modelling work is being performed as part of the FFESC project, Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Northwest Skeena Communities.
Keywords: vegetation modelling, IPCC, process-based, Skeena

Estimating Moose habitat and abundance from satellite-derived indicators across the Province of Ontario, Canada

Jean-Simon Michaud¹, Nicholas C. Coops¹, Margaret E. Andrew², Michael A. Wulder²; Glen S. Brown³

(1) Department of Forest Resource Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; (2) Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, Canada; (3) Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Sault Ste. Marie, Canada

Moose (Alces alces) are the largest ungulates in the family Cervidae, and have four subspecies across North America. Moose are of high importance to recreation and economic activities and are a key species within forest ecosystems as they are an important source of food for predators and scavengers (e.g., black bear (Ursus americanus) and timber wolf (Canis lupus)). Extensive moose aerial surveys are crucial to moose management and are undertaken annually by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). However, surveys of ungulate populations are expensive and OMNR would benefit from alternative methods for mapping moose density, such as monitoring their key habitat and assessing how it varies through space and time. Moose habitat models are utilised since 1987 and permit predictions on how moose use their habitat and how they behave under change in their environment. Although, these models are static and with increasing disturbances and rising trend in climate variability likely to occur in Canada, there is a need for dynamic models. Remote sensing, which has been shown to be a valuable technology to monitor environmental change at multiple spatial and temporal scales, can provide this dynamic element. In this communication, we propose a statistical model that utilises combination of remote sensing derived vegetation productivity to provide insight on change in food and shelter availability, land cover and urban and environmental features to estimate moose habitat and abundance across Ontario. We discuss the model development, and its application to moose aerial survey data throughout Ontario from 2000-2005.

San Jose River watershed Regional Adaptation Collaborative: modeling forest management options under a changing climate and their impact on water resources

Harry Nelson¹, Stewart Cohen², Ken Day, Michael Gerzon¹, Georg Jost, Cathy Koot, Dan Moore, Craig Nitschke, Adam Wei, Philip Grace

(1) Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; (2) Environment Canada, Vancouver, Canada

The San Jose River watershed Regional Adaptation Collaborative (RAC) is funded through Natural Resource Canada's Regional Adaptation Collaboratives Climate Change program which aims to initiate regional adaption planning in a sustained and coordinated way. The project seeks to link forest management strategies under different climate change scenarios to impacts on the flow of services and values from those forests on timber supply and water quality and quantity. Using the best understanding available of how climate change might affect forest resources, the project uses a suite of models to shed light on the cumulative impacts of climate change on forest dynamics and watershed hydrology. The modeling exercise also helps to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed forest management options in maintaining forest cover and water supply under changing conditions. A key part of this project involves working with local decision-makers, practitioners, and others with a stake in these outcomes to identify key watershed values and local vulnerabilities. A series of workshops and meetings, held in Williams Lake in British Columbia's Central Cariboo region, have fostered a participatory, collaborative approach to discussing potential scenarios, model inputs and preliminary outputs. Essential to the San Jose River watershed RAC is the establishment of a dialogue platform by which to increase awareness of the potential impacts of climate change at the local level and to further the understanding of different adaptation options.
Keywords: adaptation, collaborative research, dialogue, meta-modeling

Kamloops Future Forest Strategy II

Harry Nelson¹, Ken Zielke, Bryce Bancroft, Brad Seely, Craig Nitschke, Clive Welham, Cam Brown, Laurie Kremsater, Stewart Cohen, Michael Gerzon, David M. Pérez

(1) Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy II (K2) is a Future Forest Ecosystem Scientific Council (FFESC) funded project that seeks to inform practitioners and decision-makers facing increasingly complex questions with respect to forest management under climate change. The project, an extension of the Kamloops Future Forest Strategy I (K1), aims to understand the impacts of plausible climate change scenarios on the ecosystems, forest conditions and values under the current forest management regime in the Kamloops Timber Supply Area in the Southern Interior of British Columbia (BC). In addition, the influence of several potential daptive strategies are being explored to better inform decisions people are considering with respect to climate change adaptation in forest management in BC. K2 advances the expert opinion based K1 vulnerability analysis by quantifying the sensitivities and vulnerabilities through meta-model forecasting with a comprehensive linkage to the best available information and clearly defined assumptions where such information is lacking. K2 also expands the K1 assessment by evaluating potential solutions to high-priority strategic forest management questions and challenges within the range of the anticipated effects of climate change and linking to rural community climate change challenges. Fundamental to K2 is a collaborative approach to model-based learning that accounts for uncertainties in the impact and outcome of climate change and builds on the relationships and shared understanding established in K1.
Keywords: meta-modeling, sensitivity-analysis, adaptation, collaboration

Policies for adaptation in forestry in British Columbia

David Pérez¹ George Hoberg¹, John L. Innes¹, Harry Nelson¹

(1) Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Sustainable forest management under the uncertainty of climate change requires actions to reduce ecosystem and management vulnerabilities by increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of both. This requires innovative forest policy that facilitates truly proactive adaptive management and incorporates lessons learned. The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy project in the Southern Interior of British Columbia has identified a number of adaptive actions to reduce climate change impact vulnerabilities, including: a) Increasing the flexibility in the delineation of large habitat reserves (e.g. old-growth management areas). b) Increasing the diversity of tree species and assemblages utilized during post-harvest reforestation. Implementation of such recommendations raises important questions about risk, responsibility, costs, needs, and barriers. Clear answers regarding the institutional, social, and economic feasibility of effective adaptive forest management in BC will increase the capacity of BC's forests and range management framework to cope with climate uncertainty and facilitate implementation of novel actions necessary for adaptation. This project seeks to identify and evaluate policy alternatives to implement the aforementioned recommendations in the Kamloops Land and Resource Management Plan area, that, under climate change, are important strategies for conserving biodiversity and increasing resilience. The overarching goal is to make sound policy recommendations that facilitate adaptive action for landscape-level biodiversity management under climate change. Fundamental to this is the strategic integration of current stand and landscape-level biodiversity strategies, including reforestation, with projections of climate change in forest planning.

CCA-SFM Workshop participants are encouraged to participate in this important study. While this study is independent of the Workshop, the organizers feel that they share common objectives and fully endorse it. Please visit:http://app.fluidsurveys.com/surveys/dave-D/adaptive-forest-management/.
Keywords: adaptation, forest policy, reforestation, old-growth management areas

Adapting natural resource management to climate change on the Olympic Peninsula

Jessica E. Halofsky¹, David L. Peterson², Kathy A. O'Halloran³, Cat Hawkins Hoffman⁴

(1) University of Washington, School of Forest Resources, Seattle, USA; (2) U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Seattle, USA; (3) Olympic National Forest, Olympia, USA; (4) Olympic National Park, Port Angeles, USA

We created a science-management partnership to develop a strategy for adapting to climate change on the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA). The partnership included Olympic National Forest, Olympic National Park, U.S. Forest Service scientists, and the University of Washington. As a part of the case study process, we conducted a vulnerability assessment that involved a review of available climate model projections to determine likely levels of exposure to climate change on the Olympic Peninsula, and a review of relevant literature and available effects model projections to identify likely climate change sensitivities in each of four focus areas on the Olympic Peninsula, including hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife. We also identified management constraints at the forest and park to evaluate some aspects of institutional capacity to implement adaptive actions. The vulnerability assessment process set the stage for development of adaptation options through scientist-manager workshops. The case study process produced concrete adaptation options for Olympic National Forest and Park and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change. A key finding of the assessment was that the current general management at the forest and park, with restoration as a primary goal, is consistent with managing for resilience to prepare ecosystems for a changing climate. However, the effort highlighted some potential issues related to climate change that challenge current precepts and management guidelines, and helped to identify new potential actions, and actions that could be increased and reprioritized. For example, the case study process identified numerous ways to maintain ecosystem function and biodiversity, and increase resilience to climate change. However, the looming questions of when to consider assisted migration or when and how to redefine exotic species remain for discussion. Although questions remain, the case study process was an essential first step for Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park in preparing for climate change. The process used and ideas produced can be used to help other natural resource managers in adapting to climate change.
Keywords: adaptation, science-management partnership, Olympic Peninsula

How will watershed monitoring detect effects of climate change?

Darcy Pickard¹, Marc Porter, Lars Reese-Hansen, Richard Thompson, and Katherine Wieckowski

(1) ESSA Technologies, Vancouver, Canada; (2) Ministry of Natural Resources, Operations, Victoria, Canada; (3) BC Ministry of Environment

A "fisheries sensitive watershed" (FSW) is a legal designation applied to an area of land making up a watershed. The designation gets its authority under the Government Actions Regulation (GAR) through the Forest and Range Practices Act. Among other tests used to establish conservation measures under this regulation, two primary tests require (i.e. define) a FSW as having: (1) significant fish values and (2) inherent sensitivity. Once established, this designation serves as a forest management planning obligation to consider the range of values and sensitivities entailing "special management" in order to conserve fish habitat values. Efficacy monitoring is seen as essential to ensuring the success of a FSW as a regulatory conservation measure. Through monitoring, resource managers will determine whether best practices are having the desired outcomes by testing assumptions around various practices aimed at ensuring maintenance and restoration of fish habitat values. Currently, government and various partners are preparing a FSW monitoring protocol designed to measure the effectiveness of FSW designations and associated management practices. Additionally, through a multidisciplinary partnership (Skeena Communities Climate Change Adaptation Planning Project), the protocol is being broadened to help measure watershed level changes that can be attributed to climate change. The ability to monitor watershed condition, detect change, and report out on trends overtime, will serve as an important planning tool. This tool will help resource planners engage in ongoing dialogues with communities and professionals, thereby better supporting decision making and governance surrounding sustaining natural resource values essential to the social, cultural and economic health of an area.

The North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership: A science-management approach to climate change adaptation

Crystal L. Raymond¹, David L. Peterson¹, Regina Rochefort²

(1) US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Seattle, USA; (2) North Cascades National Park, National Park Service, Sedro-Woolley, USA

In 2010, the US Forest Service (USFS) and National Park Service (NPS) listed climate change adaptation among their strategic goals. The scientific basis for expected climatic changes and associated effects on natural and cultural resources is sufficiently certain to move forward with adaptation planning on US federal lands, yet the science has not been incorporated into current management perspectives and plans. The objective of the North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership (NCAP) is to facilitate implementation of climate change adaptation for the North Cascadia region of Washington, USA. The region is 2.5 million hectares of forest, subalpine, and alpine ecosystems and includes two national parks and two national forests. Resource management is governed by the Northwest Forest Plan and focuses primarily on restoration and preservation of old forest and natural processes. The NCAP is the third joint USFS - NPS collaborative adaptation effort and the largest of its kind. We will expand on previous adaptation case studies on US federal lands by applying the methods to a larger area with more geographic, ecological, and institutional complexity. We are completing the project in three phases: (1) educational workshops for staff, (2) a vulnerability assessment of natural and cultural resources, and (3) the development of strategic and tactical adaptation options that will be incorporated into current management. The vulnerability assessment and adaptation plans will focus on resource sectors prioritized by management. This project will improve the understanding of how to engage in science-management partnerships and the scientific process required to develop and implement climate change adaptation at large spatial scales.
Keywords: climate change, adaptation, forest management, Pacific Northwest

Temperature sensitive streams in BC; Policy considerations for TSS designations

Lars Reese-Hansen¹

(1) Ministry of Natural Resources, Operations, Victoria, Canada

Under the Forest and Range Practices Act's (FRPA) Government Actions Regulation (GAR) section 15, the Minister responsible for the Wildlife Act has authority to designate a 'fish stream' as a temperature sensitive stream (TSS). Although historically two streams (Nadina and Nicola) have received recognition as TSS under the former Forest Practices Code Act, currently there are no TSS designations under FRPA. The BC government considers the completion of a standardized procedure for the evaluation and designation of TSS as a priority. As a policy tool TSS designation will be particularly important in helping mitigate climate change impacts to aquatic and riparian environments. In an effort to help inform the creation of the procedure this poster is intended to: 1) Inform natural resource managers with an interest in fisheries, forestry, and water management about the explicit management direction under both GAR and the Forest Planning and Practices Regulation, and 2) Solicit ideas and input from professionals and knowledgeable individuals alike to help inform the content of a TSS procedure.

Risk analysis and decision support tool

Bruce Rogers¹

(1) Ministry of Natural Resources, Operations, Prince George, Canada

The primary outcome of this project is a climate change risk assessment and decision support tool to assist forest managers in evaluating options for minimizing risk and vulnerability, maximizing resilience and making strategic forest investments in response to a rapidly changing climate. Focus is on the intermediate term (i.e. next 20 - 40 years) landscape and site level risk. There is a need to define trends in extreme weather and climate as natural disturbances are often associated with extremes rather than trends in the mean. We examine the risk of extreme landscape events such as landslides, floods, wildfire, and pest outbreaks in response to extreme weather, as well as stand level tree spp mortality from drought, drought-induced insect attack, and wet-warm- induced pathogen spread. Using available forest cover and ecosystem unit mapping as inputs, the stand-level risk assessment tool assesses the potential for high levels of tree mortality (i.e., >50% of canopy) within individual forest polygons based on shifts projected actual soil moisture regime (ASMR). The risk assessment results provide information on both current and projected risk and will be presentable in a GIS layer that can be used to make direct decisions or can be fed into the decision support tool. Stand level validation involving climate and soil parameters along with tree level historical growth and physiological stress response is also carried out to evaluate its agreement with modeling outputs. Preliminary risk mapping and field validation were conducted in 2010 and will be expanded in 2011. Keywords: vulnerability, mortality, drought, absolute-soil-moisture-regime

Opportunities for linking climate change adaptation and mitigation through agro forestry systems: Case study in Wolaita Zone

Wondimu Tadiwos¹

(1) Education Office, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Agro forestry systems not only provide a great opportunity for sequestering carbon, and hence helping to mitigate climate change, but they also enhance the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems in tropical and subtropical regions. Climate change is one of the most serious threats the world faces. It will affect all of us, but will have a disproportionate impact on millions of poor rural people. For development work to be effective, we must not only help poor rural people emerge from poverty, we must also enable them to cope with and mitigate the impact of climate change. Afforestation and reforestation, better land-management practices such as agro forestry, rehabilitation of degraded crop and pasture land and better farming practices can all contribute significantly to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents data that examine the mitigation and adaptation potential of different agro forestry systems as well as their significance for income generation for rural populations. We then present the scientific evidence that leads to the expectation that agro forestry also has an important role in climate change adaptation, particularly for small holder farmers. We conclude with priority research questions that need to be answered concerning the role of agro forestry in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change. New areas of research are proposed and a better use of existing agricultural management knowledge is called for.

New project: Adaptation of Asia-Pacific forests to climate change

John Innes¹, Tongli Wang¹, Guangyu Wang¹, Yongyuan Yin², Zuofeng Zhuang³

(1) Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; (2) Environment Canada, Vancouver, Canada; (3) Asia-Pacific Network

The ecosystems of the Asia-Pacific region are particularly vulnerable to climate changes as temperatures and aridity are expected to increase more rapidly in a large part of this region than the global average. Climate change is therefore considered to be the most important threat to the capacity of forest landscapes to provide ecological, economic and social services. Mitigating and adapting to climate change are pressing challenges for the scientific community, stakeholders and policy makers in this region. Recently, the research project introduced here has been approved for funding by Asia-Pacific Network (APNet) (mainly sponsored by China). In this project, we will apply state-of-the-art technologies and analytical approaches from climate modelling, geospatial analysis and sustainable forest management to develop tools for climate change and adaptation, including high-resolution climate models for the entire Asia Pacific region and ecological models for the major forest areas in the region. We will examine the current status of studies in climate change to identify knowledge gaps and to set up hypotheses. A network will be developed to connect scientists, stakeholders and policy makers from China, Canada, USA and Australia to strengthen the project team and to facilitate information sharing and knowledge transfer. With the help of tools developed in this project and pilot field studies through the network, we will develop adaptive strategies and recommendations for sustainable forest management practices in the Asia Pacific region.
Keywords: Asia Pacific, climate change, forest adaptation

Tackling severe uncertainty of wildfires due to climate change: An adaptive harvest decision framework for BC's interior forests

Zhen Xu¹

(1) Department of Geography, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada

The sustainable forest management of British Columbia's interior forests is currently troubled by severe uncertainties from wildfires and climate change. Adaptive management especially adaptive harvest decisions to wicked fire behaviors are essential. Adaptive harvest decisions are expected to generate robust harvest strategies which are still feasible even in the face of severe uncertainty due to climate change. This research mainly is mainly based on the assumption that no specified probability distribution can accurately describe the wildfire occurrence. The situation without making any effort to reduce the wildfire risk, which is relatively simple, is first examined by an info-gap model. This model focuses on generating more feasible decisions by setting certain critical values for maximum tolerance and minimum necessary uncertainty for windfalls based on decision makers' particular needs. Given the trade-offs of opportuneness and robustness indicators, decision makers are expected to make more robust harvest decisions. Additionally, situation with management options by which fire risk can be effectively reduced is considered separately with a specified robust optimization model. This model is scenario-based and different management options and climate conditions can be examined comparatively and simultaneously. Two specified timber supply areas (TSAs) in interior BC are chosen for field studies. Different tree species, climate conditions, seral classes, and management options are used to characterize these two spatial areas. One attractive feature of this approach is that it can keep the linearity of the original model during the transformation and thus make it computationally tractable. This robust optimization model is expected to illustrate the trade-off between feasibility of targeting harvest scheduling and protection levels.
Keywords: adaptive harvest decisions, severe uncertainty, robustness, wildfires

Asia-Pacific Network for Sustainable Forest Management and Rehabilitation: New initiative for harmonious future of people and forests

Zhuang Zuofeng¹

(1) Director of Programme Management and Development, APFNet

Asia-Pacific Network for Sustainable Forest Management and Rehabilitation (APFNet) is a newly established regional organization which is devoted to the sustainable forest management in the forestry sector in Asia Pacific region. APFNet is open to APEC economies and other interested partners outside of APEC, and seeks collaborations with all regional forest initiatives and processes to increase the regional forest areas by afforestation, reforestation and forest rehabilitation, to response the climate change and increase carbon sequestration by strengthening sustainable forest management and improving forest quality, to increase the socio-economic benefits by improving the forest productive capacity, and to enhance biodiversity conservation by restoring the wildlife habitat in the region. APFNet organizes its programs and activities under four pillars, i.e. Capacity Building, Pilot Projects, Regional Policy Dialogues and information sharing. So far, APFNet has developed two thematic training programmes around the topics of forestry and rural development and forest resources management for the targeted technicians, professionals, policy-makers, as well as practitioners on the ground in the region. A new scholarship programme is being developed and will provide the opportunities for the young fellows to complete their graduate study. Four Pilot projects with a total grant of $5million are under implementation and another 6 projects will be started in 2011. These projects will help develop the best practices in forest management and demonstrate in the region. Furthermore, APFNet will work closely with other initiatives in the region to support regional high-level forestry official dialogues to facilitate mutual learning in policy making and enforcement. In 2011 APFNet will seek APEC, ASEM, ASEAN and GMS as platforms to gather regional high-level forestry officials and even forestry ministers together to draw strong political commitment to SFM and put forestry issues high on the regional political agenda.

Poster Session

UBC students and visiting participants are encouraged to present posters at the workshop. Posters will be on display in the Atrium of the Forest Science Centre throughout the workshop.

Student posters will be reviewed by guest speakers and panellists and the author of the best quality poster will be selected to participate in Panel 3 -- Ideas for Future Research.

To present a poster, please submit an abstract (approx. 250 words) and four key words that best summarize your research by email to cca.sfm@ubc.ca.

The deadline for abstract submissions is January 17, 2011.

Scenarios Training

The deadline to sign up for the Scenarios Training session is January 17, 2011.

Results from the most recent IPCC Assessment of 2007 (AR4), have produced a valuable dataset for global climate change projections. In this database of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections, some 24 models are now available. Coupled with additional emission scenario paths and multiple model runs, the number of possible future outcomes number greater than 70, with the expected distribution of model values. This has led to considerable uneasiness within the policy and end-user communities on how to best deal with the overwhelming number of projections available.

A rigorous validation exercise of model output against historical observations (such as the 1971-2000 normals period), can provide some confidence that certain models are able to capture observed climatology, while help to identify those models which appear less suited to particular locations. A standardized means of such validation is not yet developed, and is very dependent upon the end-users area of interest. As with the GCM output, there are also multiple observed datasets to perform this validation, ranging from individual station observations to large gridded global averages at the scale of the model grid cells. Although the gridded datasets ultimately rely on station observations, their results can differ from one another as well, leading one to wonder what observed data is the the true observed value one should be testing against. Additionally, it is implied, but not guaranteed, that a model which can reproduce past climatology will also be just as successful in future projections.

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Scenarios Training

A multi-model (ensemble) approach to produce climate change projections over Canada is used to demonstrate how this technique can overcome and address the uncertainties. The ensemble approach is by far the most currently accepted method of considering climate change projections versus the acceptance of a single, or limited number of available models. A combination of local station observations along with the simple addition of an ensemble change value with standard deviation ranges is considered through the tools available on the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN). The caveats of each step of this process are identified to allow the end-user to fully understand the strengths and weaknesses of he process. Other more elaborate mechanisms such as statistical downscaling are also available, but are not considered in this workshop.

For more information, contact Neil Comer at Neil.Comer@ec.gc.ca.

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Logistics

The workshop will take place in the Fletcher Challenge Theatre, Room 1005, Forest Sciences Centre, 2424 Main Mall (UBC Way Finder).Lunches and break refreshments (30% vegetarian) will be provided during the workshop.

Transportation to and from the hotel will be provided for invited speakers and panellists that are staying at the Fairmont Waterfront. Visitor parking is located within a block of the Forest Science Centre at the Thunderbird Parkade or Health Sciences Parkade.

For public transportation between downtown Vancouver and UBC, consider taking the #17 or #44 bus routes ($2.50 fare). For public transporation between YVR Airport and downtown, consider taking the Canada Line skytrain to Waterfront ($3.75 fare).

Accommodations

A block of rooms has been arranged for out-of-town guests at the Fairmont Waterfront at a rate of $129.00 per night (single/double occupancy) between Sunday, Feb 13th through Tuesday, Feb 15th inclusive. Room rates are subject to 2% Municipal Room Tax, 12% Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) and a 1.5% Destination Marketing Fee. Check-in time is 3:00pm. Check-out time is 12:00 noon. Please present the hotel with the reservation identification number FACU0211.The cut off date for group reservations is January 13, 2011.

Hotel address and contact:

The Fairmont Waterfront
900 Canada Place Way, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6C 3L5
Ph: +1 604 691 1906
Fax: +1 604 691 1999
Email: wfc.waterfrontgroups@fairmont.com
www.fairmont.com

General Inquiries

For general inquiries and further information about the workshop program or local accommodations, please contact:
cca.sfm@ubc.ca

Co-chairs

Stewart Cohen, Environment Canada
Bruce Larson, University of British Columbia

Program

Gary Bull
John Innes
Nicole Klenk
Hosny El Lakany
Don MacIver
Robin Bing Rong
Yongyuan Yin
Robbie Hember, Graduate Research Assistant
Amanda de la Torre, Graduate Research Assistant

Local Arrangements

Heather Akai
Indra Fung Fook
Debbie McPherson

Climate Scenarios Training

Neil Comer, Environment Canada

Registration

Note: Workshop registration for in-person attendance is now closed. Registration for remote participation and access to the webcast remains open.

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