Forecasting Forest Futures:

A Hybrid Modelling Approach to the Assessment of Sustainability of Forest Ecosystems and their Values

J.P. Kimmins, J.A. Blanco, B. Seely, C. Welham, K. Scoullar

Earthscan Ltd. London, UK. 2010.

Appraisals

from other forest scientists and modellers

Additional material

Software, presentations, papers, reports and much more!

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What other researchers have said about our book:

“At last, a book well-written and carefully and clearly thought out about how to think about and make useful, scientifically sound, forecasts about forestry. More than that, it will be of immense help in conservation and management of all living resources, because it has the clarity of thought and depth of understanding needed and sorely lacking in the past. A must read for those involved in natural resource management and conservation.”

Dan Botkin, University of California in Santa Barbara, U.S.A.

“Providing a comprehensive review of forest models, their history and underlying ideas and concepts, this book is fascinating and thought-provoking reading which should not be missed by anyone engaged in model building and model application to forest management.”

Annikki Makela, University of Helsinki, Finland

"Ecosystem modelling has been described as an 'organized way of thinking about the future'. Hamish Kimmins and co-workers do just that, in synthesizing over 30 years of experience with forest ecosystem models for sustainable management. A thought-provoking, informative, and stimulating book."

Fritts Mohren, University of Wageningen, The Netherlands

“Kimmins and his colleagues provide the definitive text on hybrid modelling approach based past 33 years working experience with FORECAST family of hybrid models. Each chapter follows a logical progression and is very readable. This is the most significant contribution to forecasting future forests across levels of organization, bravo!”

Changhui Peng, University of Quebec at Montreal, Canada

“Written by top-ecologists, this book imparts brilliantly how to integrate scattered pieces of knowledge, develop a model of the whole and use it for sustainable forest ecosystem management. It should be on the shelf of any scientist, student or practician interested in understanding, modelling or managing forest ecosystems.”

Hans Pretzsch, Technical Universiy of Munich, Germany

“A grand tour of issues and insights, approaches and applications in forest modeling based on three decades of experience with the FORECAST family of models, and offering a well-reasoned rationale for better models, and better use of models.”

Jerry Vanclay, Southern Cross University, Australia

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BOOK CONTENTS

Select the chapter from which you would like to obtain the additional content.

Chapter 1. Introduction: why do we need ecosystem-level models as a decision-support tool in forestry?

Chapter 2. Ecological and environmental concepts that should be addressed in forestry decision-support tools.

Chapter 3. Hybrid simulation in the context of other classes of forest models, and the development of the FORECAST family of hybrid simulation models.

Chapter 4. Forestry in transition: the need for individual tree models.

Chapter 5. Stand-level hybrid models as tools to support ecosystem-based management.

Chapter 6. Landscape-level models in forest management.

Chapter 7. Educational models in forest management.

Chapter 8. How to develop a model for forest management.

Chapter 9. The role of ecosystem management models in adaptive management, certification and land reclamation.

Chapter 10. Future perspectives in hybrid modelling

Don't forget to take a look to our related presentations and publications!

Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION: WHY DO WE NEED ECOSYSTEM-LEVEL MODELS AS DECISION-SUPPORT TOOLS IN FORESTRY?

  • Forestry, the environment and the role of science. Presented by J.P. Kimmins, at the meeting with UBC Alumni in Kelowna, BC, 2005. (Slide show in pdf) 2.7 Mb
  • Management of forest complexity. Presented by J.P. Kimmins at the Faculty Research Seminar, UBC, Vancouver, 2007. (Slide show in pdf) 3.5 Mb
  • Science in Forestry: Why does it sometimes disappoint or even fail us? Presented by J.P. Kimmins, at the PIWAS meeting, Vancouver, BC. 2006. (Slide show in pdf) 2.4 Mb

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Chapter 2. ECOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCEPTS THAT SHOULD BE ADDRESSED IN FORESTRY DECISION-SUPPORT TOOLS

  • Ecological succession. Presented by J.P. Kimmins, at the Nanjing Forestry University, R.P. China, 2006. (Slide show in pdf) 5.0 Mb 
  • Modelling forest ecosystem management across scales. Presented by J.P. Kimmins, at the 5th NAFEW, Ottawa, ON. 2005. (Slide show in pdf) 1.8 Mb

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Chapter 3. HYBRID SIMULATION IN THE CONTEXT OF OTHER CLASSES OF FOREST MODELS, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORECAST FAMILY OF HYBRID SIMULATION MODELS

  • Hybrid ecosystem-level forest models as tools for forest management and research. Presented by J.A. Blanco et al. at the SISCO winter workshop, Penticton, BC. 2006. (Poster in pdf) 2.4 Mb
  • Ecosystem management modelling. Presented by J.P. Kimmins, at the visit of Yunnan delegation to UBC, Vancouver, BC, 2005. (Slide show in pdf) 4.5 Mb
  • Complexity in decision-support tools. Presented by J.P. Kimmins, at the IUFRO World Congress, Quebec City, QC, 2006. [pdf] 7.5 Mb

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Chapter 4. FORESTRY IN TRANSITION: THE NEED FOR INDIVIDUAL TREE MODELS

  • Welham C., Blanco J.A. Kimmins J.P. (2008) 'FORCEE helps to manage mixed-woods', Link, vol 10(2), pp12 [pdf] 238 Kb
  • FORCEE (Slide show in PDF file)

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Chapter 5. STAND-LEVEL HYBRID MODELS AS TOOLS TO SUPPORT ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT

  • Yield decline and sustainability in Chinese Fir plantations - a simulation investigation to analyze the possible causes. Presented by Blanco J.A., Bi J., Kimmins J.P., Ding Y., Seely B., Welham C. at the International congress on cultivated forests. Bilbao, Spain, October 3-7 2006. Union of Forest Owners of Southern Europe, Derio, Spain. [pdf] 1.5 Mb.
  • Testing the ecosystem-level forest model FORECAST through North America, from the Caribbean Sea to the Pacific NW. Presented by Blanco J.A., Seely B., González E., Haynes P., Welham C., Kimmins J.P., Seebacher T. at the 6th North American Forest Ecology Workshop. Vancouver, Canada. June 18 -22, 2007. [pdf] 1.0 Mb.
  • An integrated modelling approach for the assessment of forest growth and development in the face of climate change: a case study in the western boreal forest. Presented by Seely B., Welham C., Blanco J.A., Kimmins J.P. at the International Workshop on Simulation of Ecosystem Productivity, C-N Cycling and Multi-objective Forest Management. Lin-An, Hangzhou, China. September 22-24 2008. [pdf] 3.9 Mb.
  • Validation of FORECAST. Results from coastal and interior forests in BC, Canada. Presented by Blanco J.A., Seely B., Welham C., Kimmins J.P. at the International Workshop on Simulation of Ecosystem Productivity, C-N Cycling and Multi-objective Forest Management. Lin-An, Zhejiang, China. September 22-24. [pdf] 1.3 Mb.
  • Hybrid poplar in Saskatchewan: Projected long-term productivity and N dynamics using the FORECAST model. Presented by C. Welham, H. Kimmins, K. Van Rees, B. Seely at the Poplar Council Meeting, Saskatchewan, 2005. [pdf] 5.2 Mb.
  • FORECAST Modelling Workshop. Presented by B. Seely, C. Welham, J.P. Kimmins in Norway, 2003.

  • Present applications of the FORECAST model (in Spanish). Presented by Blanco J.A. at the 5th International Symposium on Sustainable Management of Forest Resource (SIMFOR). Pinar del Río, Cuba. April 22-26, 2008. [pdf] 216 Kb.

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Chapter 6. LANDSCAPE-LEVEL MODELS IN FOREST MANAGEMENT

  • LLEMS – Local Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator. J.P. Kimmins, B. Seely, K. Scoullar, D. Cavens, at CSC, Vancouver, BC. 2006. [pdf] 2.3 Mb
      
  • LLEMS: an ecologically-based spatially-explicit tool for assessing the implications of variable retention management for selected indicators of Sustainable Forest Management. Presented by B. Seely, J.A. Blanco, J.P. Kimmins, C. Welham, K. Scoullar, at the scientific workshop "Spatial analysis in ecology: methods and applications", Alcoy, Spain. 2006. [pdf in Spanish] 1.6 Mb

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Chapter 7. EDUCATIONAL MODELS IN FOREST MANAGEMENT

  • FORTOON
  • PFF (Possible Forest Futures) ( Slide show in PDF file)

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Chapter 8. HOW TO DEVELOP A MODEL OF FOREST MANAGEMENT

  • PINEL model
  • Tree Productivity and Climate Model (TPCM)
  • Conceptual model of Allelopathy in forests, presented by J.A. Blanco and J.P. Kimmins at the IUFRO Meeting "Forest Growth and Timber Quality". Portland, USA, 2007. (Poster in PDF file) 574 Kb
  • Validation of FORECAST for Canadian and Cuban plantations, presented by J.A. Blanco, B. Seely, E. González, P. Haynes, C. Welham, J.P. Kimmins, T. Seebacher at the "6th North American Forest Ecology Workshop". Vancouver, Canada, 2007. (Slide show in PDF file) 986 Kb
  • The need for complexity in forest management models, presented by J.P. Kimmins at the "UBC Faculty of Forestry Research Seminar series", Vancouver, Canada, 2007. (Slide show in PDF file) 6.66 Mb

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Chapter 9. THE ROLE OF ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT MODELS IN ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT, CERTIFICATION AND LAND RECLAMATION

  • Seely B. 2005. Development of carbon curves for addressing CSA certification requirements in the Morice and Lakes Timber Supply Areas. FORRx Consulting Inc. (Report in PDF file) 375 Kb
  • Seebacher T. 2005. Effect of capping depths and fertilization levels on white spruce seedling production and soil nutrient dynamics (Report / Presentation) PDF files 547 Kb each

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Chapter 10. FUTURE PERSPECTIVES IN HYBRID MODELLING

  • Visualization of the potential increase in the water level in Vancouver, BC, created by UBC CALP research group (movie in wmv file) 3.5 Mb.
  • Flanders D., Pond, E., Salter, J. and Tatebe, K. (2009) A Preliminary Assessment of Renewable Energy Capacity in Prince George, BC.66 pp. CALP Report prepared for Natural Resources Canada. (Report in PDF file) 6.5 Mb.
  • Visualization of the use of CALP-Forester (movie in wmv file) 11.1 Mb

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