The regeneration estimation component of the original Prognosis model has been "turned off" in Prognosis^BC, because it was found to be an inadequate predictor of the probability of regeneration under the conditions tested in BC. Users of Prognosis^BC must presently supply their own estimates of regeneration.  Calibration of the regeneration component models using regression approaches did not lead to good predictions and required large amounts of data.

Imputation approaches have been tested to examine their ability to predict regeneration. The performances of tabular imputation and most similar neighbour approaches have been compared, to determine which is the most effective.   To date, Most Similar Neighbour techniques have been found to be the most effective. However, the ability to accurately predict regeneration by species and height class has remained problematic.

Collection of new data has been expanded, on an exploratory basis, to include sampling for advance vs. subsequent regeneration, and subsampling substrate and spatial data, to determine whether this information might improve estimation.

This project also extends to study regeneration after mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack. MPB infested stands display different stand structure characteristic than partially cut stands.

PROJECTS (see Extention for reports, publications and presentations):

Satter D., V. LeMay, and P.L. Marshall. 2008. Estimating Natural Regeneration and Yield in Pine-Dominated Stands Following Mountain Pine Beetle Attack Using SORTIE-ND and PrognosisBC  in a Hybrid Modelling Approach. FIA-FSP Project Number: Y081048.

LeMay V., P.L. Marshall, A. Zumrawi and D. Coates. 2006-2008. Modelling Natural Regeneration in Mountain Pine Beetle Impacted Stands.  

LeMay V., T. Lee, R. E. Scott, D. Satter, D. Robinson, A. Zumrawi, and P.L. Marshall. 2005-2007. Modeling Natural Regeneration Following Mountain Pine Beetle Attacks in the Southern and Central Interior of British Columbia. Natural Resources Canada, MPB Standard Contribution Agreement, PO # 8.35. 

Hassani, B.T, V. LeMay, A-A Zumrawi, and D. Robinson.  2004.  Implementing a PrognosisBC regeneration submodel for the complex stands of southeastern and central BC.  Report for Forestry Innovative Investment, Project  No. R04-095.

Hassani, B.T. , V.  LeMay, P. L. Marshall, H. Temesgen, and A-A  Zumrawi. 2004. Regeneration imputation models for complex stands of Southeastern British Columbia. Forestry Chronicle 80(2):271-278.  http://pubs.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/tfc/tfc80271-2.html.

Zumrawi, Abdel Azim, Valerie LeMay, Peter Marshall , Badre Hassani. and Cornel Lencar.  2003.  Natural regeneration and juvenile height growth models for partially cut complex stands of Southeastern and Central BC .  Presented at the Regeneration Issues in Partial Cutting Workshop, October 28, 2003, Kelowna , BC .

LeMay, Valerie, Katrina Froese, Abdel Azim Zumrawi, Badre Hassani,,Peter Marshall, and Cornel Lencar.  2003.  Natural regeneration and juvenile height growth models for partially cut complex stands of Southeastern and Central BC.  Presented at the Regeneration Issues in Partial Cutting Workshop, November 13, 2003, Edmonton, AB.

Development of Regeneration Imputation Models for the ICHmw2 in the Vicinity of Nelson

Development of Regeneration Imputation Models for the IDFdk1, dk2, & dk3 Subzone Variants of the Kamloops and Cariboo Forest Regions

Modelling regeneration by imputation: some background. Presentation to the BC Ministry of Forests.

Regeneration imputation models for interior cedar hemlock stands. Presentation to the BC Ministry of Forests.

Regeneration imputation models for Prognosis^BC: IDFdm2 subzone variant, Invermere Forest District.

Regeneration prediction for Prognosis^BC, IDFdm2 subzone variant, Invermere Forest District. Presentation to the BC Ministry of Forests.

Regeneration under partial cutting for Prognosis^BC, MSdk, Cranbrook Forest District.

Regeneration under partial cutting for Prognosis^BC, MSdk, Cranbrook Forest District: field sampling.

Regeneration under partial cutting for Prognosis^BC, MSdk, Cranbrook Forest District: Presentation to the BC Ministry of Forests. [515 KB] PowerPoint Version [1.11 MB]

[Regeneration Establishment] [Predicting Tree Lists] [Small Tree Height Growth]
[Large Tree Height Growth]  [Large Tree Diameter Increment] [Live Crown] [Mortality]